Unexpected Passenger Flow Characteristic And Propagation Analysis In Urban Rail Transit Network

With the development of China's economy,the problem of urbanization is increasingly obvious.Urban and urban traffic has ushered in a period of rapid development and change,which leads to mechanization reached unprecedented level.Rail transit,as a high-capacity,safety,punctuality,fast,environment-friendly mode of transport,can meet residents' traffic demand,and become the backbone of urban public transportation system.At the same time,the economic development has brought new requirements for the quality of cultural life of urban residents.More and more cities hold various kinds of special events,like the World Expo,the Asian Games,the Garden Expo,concerts,commercial exhibitions,etc.In 2014,Beijing held 10 large sporting events,193 concerts,and 431 exhibitions,which attracted tens of million people.During the beginning and the end of these events,unexpected passenger flow brings challenges to rail transit stations,lines and even the network,which form a superimposed effect to the city's traffic congestion.In order to alleviate the network pressure caused by the unexpected passenger flow,rail transit management needs to be adopted effective measures of traffic organization.This paper focuses on unexpected passenger flow characteristic,propagation analysis and related quantitative model in urban rail transit network,which can be the basis of quantitative analysis of network operation management and congestion control strategy.The paper proceeds as follows:(1)Based on summarizing the current situation of the development of urban rail transit,and analyzing the existing problems under the condition of large passenger flow,this paper finds that the present unexpected passenger flow is increasingly complex,and the influence of the propagation time and scope is expanding.However,the existing study lack of the data analysis and the related quantitative indicators.Above these reasons,this paper formulates research content,purpose and methodology,focusing on the research of unexpected passenger flow characteristic and propagation analysis in urban rail transit network.(2)This paper combes the existing research and the problems.To begin with,the complex network theory,the propagation of passenger flow theory and the network transport organization are studied.Then,combined with the direction of the sudden passenger flow,the paper concludes that the classical virus propagation model can be used to study the propagation of the urban rail transit on the macro,and the average trend of the transmission can be obtained.However,the model assumes that the premise does not conform to the dynamic process of the passenger flow,and can not get the quantitative indicators,which is not suitable for the study of the unexpected passenger flow.(3)The analysis of unexpected passenger flow at rail transit in Beijing.This paper clarifies the definition of rail transit unexpected passenger flow.And then,in order to analyses the characteristics of the unexpected passenger flow,the data of auto fare collection in Beijing during three months(2014/1/1-2014/3/31)are collected.Through the data analysis,the rules of unexpected passenger flow are discussed,and it can provide support for the following chapters.(4)Build a weighted network of urban rail transit.Firstly,this paper puts forward to use the actual operating time to build a weighted network of urban rail transit,closing to the real network.Secondly,as an example,static characteristic value index is statistical in Beijing rail transit network,then the network is verified the scale-free property,which further elaborating the theory of epidemic propagation theory can be used for reference.(5)Establish the propagation-model of unexpected passenger flow.First of all,with the epidemic propagation theory and cellular automata theory,we establish the model of SIS-CA to reasonably describe transferring process of the network nodes from " susceptible" to " infected" to " susceptible".And then,in the process of simulation,selecting a specific instance,and using Matlab software as a model project to get simulation result.It can be preliminary verified the validity and scientific of the model.Finally,the model can identify the main problem in propagation.(6)Research on congestion control of unexpected passenger flow.Combined with the characteristics of unexpected passenger flow,this paper puts forward the congestion control method from two aspects: the train operation optimization and the station passenger flow organization.By comparing the simulation results between the optimization and actual,it is concluded that the effect of congestion control is effective,which provides reference for the further strategies at urban rail transit.