Research On Car Service Spare Parts Demand Prediction Based On Grey Model

In recent years, with the development of our country economy by leaps and bounds, people's living standard had the very big enhancement, in an increasingly affluent in modern society, traffic tools are also great changes have taken place, from bicycles, electric cars and other into today's vehicles, automobile has become one of the necessary consumer goods. Because our country population base is large, so is expected to become the world's most promising car producer and auto after-sales service market. As the intensity of competition in the auto industry, auto production brought about by the profit is less and less, and the automobile after-sale service delivery profits accounted for 50% 60% of the total profits and various automotive manufacturing enterprises gradually began to attach importance to after-sales service, good after-sales service can not only improve customer satisfaction, enhance their own brand effect, and can reduce the enterprise stock of spare parts to reduce the enterprise's capital takes up, thus greatly enhance the enterprise the competitive advantage. If you want to improve the quality of after-sale service, you need spare parts for car service for demand forecasting and management, so the car service spare parts demand prediction research has very important significance.This article will use the combination of theory and empirical methods, through the introduction of the related theory of spare parts demand prediction, analyzing the characteristic of G company car service spare parts demand is put forward in this paper, the forecast thinking. Firstly according to the characteristics of different kinds of G company spare parts ABC classification, stratified prediction and control; Secondly, A grey prediction model is set up for class A G company spare parts demand prediction, and through the test the accuracy of the prediction results. Through key spare key controls to improve customer satisfaction, the purpose of increasing the benefit of the brand. The main contents are as follows:First of all, this article summarizes the the research status of spare parts demand prediction and gray prediction at home and abroad, points out its existing problems, and expounds the automobile service spare parts demand prediction research significance; Second, spare parts demand prediction is introduced related theory, choose the grey prediction model for studying the text of the forecast; Again, analysis of G company car service spare parts demand characteristic, put forward in this paper, prediction; Then, by introducing the grey system theory and grey model, design and grey prediction model is set up; Finally, through the grey prediction model, the use of class A spare parts nearly five years of sales data to establish the grey forecasting model GM(1, 1) to predict the future demand, through the demand forecasting of G company's spare parts management and future development put forward relevant Suggestions, and as A basis for the future G company inventory control, at the same time can also be for the business similar to that of other automobile manufacture enterprise inventory management problems provide some reference.