Research On The Design Risk Management In PP Project

Project risk management is one of the most important part of the project management,including risk identification,risk analysis,risk evaluation and risk countermeasure.During the project execution,it will be benefit for the whole project through analyze project risk factor and plan the risk countermeasures.For petrochemical project management,based on the special characteristic like toxic,corrosion,inflammable,etc,the risk management is the most important for the project management.Design phase is the beginning for all the petrochemical project,to achieve the intrinsic safety design,the risk management shall be started from the design source.This thesis based on the domestic propylene project status,collect the related design risk information,identify and analyze the risk factors for propylene project design phase,the main analyze methods are HAZOP,Delphi method,expert evaluation,trough these methods,this thesis identified ten risk category,then,based on these result,the thesis analyze the main risk factor in the ten risk category,and get seven main risk factors by risk value method.This thesis find these seven factors occupied the main percentage of the project design risk by calculated the percentage.On the basis of the above analyze,this thesis make the quantitative analysis by risk matrix analysis.For this risk matrix analysis,this thesis will consider the risk losses and risk probability is normal distribution,the experts estimate the risk losses and risk probability,this thesis collect almost ten propylene projects history data,and analyze the ongoing propylene project's risk losses and risk probability.Under full probability status,this thesis get the risk losses,risk probability and unit investment risk losses' s mean data and standard Deviation by Monte Carlo method,and compare all the calculated results,analyze the difference of the ongoing project and the history project,and plan the risk countermeasures.Based on the above analyze and calculation,this thesis list the seven main risk factors by the risk serious degree,and plan the risk countermeasures and the whole risk plan,the purpose is to decrease these risk factors negative influence,and enhance the positive influence,different risk factor for different category,consider the risk avoid,risk reduce,risk transfer and the risk reserve,this thesis analyze different countermeasures for each main risk factor,and suggest the reasonable risk management plane,based on all these analysis and plan,the project management shall also take the monitoring plan to monitor all the risk factors,to keep the project execution successfully.