Study On Risk Management Of Methanol To Olefins Project In W Company

Low-carbon olefins such as ethylene and propylene are important raw materials for important petrochemicals in the modern petrochemical industry.Synthetic resin,synthetic rubber,synthetic fibers and other commodities require a lot of low-carbon olefins,and their demand is increased year by year.These low-carbon olefins production mainly to oil as raw material,and China's fossil energy structure is characterized by lack of oil,less gas,more coal.Under the influence of energy security,methanol to olefins project can maintain China's energy supply stability,long-term guarantee of domestic petrochemical raw materials sufficient.However,the scale of the methanol-to-olefins project is complicated,the investment is huge,the construction period is long,the project risk is huge,how to identify,manage and control the risk on this basis has become an important problem.This paper first analyzes the background and significance of the risk of methanol-to-olefins project,summarizes the relevant theories of project risk and the research status of project risk management at home and abroad,so as to determine the general idea and research method of the paper.Then,aiming at the risk characteristics of the methanol-to-olefins project,the risk identification is carried out from six aspects:economy,policy,resource,technology,engineering and operation.Based on this,the risk of these aspects is analyzed,and six risk indicators,such as policy risk,economic risk,technology risk,resource risk,engineering risk and operational risk,and 16 secondary risk indicators are deduced.Through the evaluation of the risk after the decomposition,establish a risk assessment model for the project of methanol to olefin.The model is used to evaluate the risk of methanol to olefin in W company by analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Finally,by the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the conclusion,according to the risk ranking,according to the main risk of W methanol to olefins project risk management measures,provide a reference for the risk analysis of the future of the MTO projects to replace fossil energy olefin project as raw material.