Risk Analysis And Assessment Of Cross-country Oil/Gas Pipeline Projects

With the development of the social economy and the improvement of the people’s living condition,the demand for energy especial oil and gas are continue to increase.At the same time,people begin to pay more attention to energy transport in a Safe and efficient way.Long-distance transport pipeline as a proven technique for oil and gas transport has been recognized by human and it is also a major approach be widely used in the word.Due to the uneven distribution of oil and gas resources in the world,pipeline has become an important transportation way for energy imports.Using pipeline to import and transport oil & gas is also help for solving the problem of imbalance of world oil and gas resources.Pipeline project has its own special characteristic,such as long construction period,wide range of areas,complex external environment.All of those factors can bring risk to pipeline project,so it is very important and necessary to study risk management of multinational pipeline project.Base on the study of project risk management’s basic theory,this thesis discuss and detail the main widely used methods for risk identification and risk analysis firstly.Then,this thesis analyze and compare their advantages,disadvantages and the applicable conditions of each methods.Upon that,the special characteristics of pipeline project and it risk management are discussed and stated.After that,AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to set up analytical model,study the importance sequencing of project risk factor and overall project risk evaluation.Meanwhile,through analyzing the different kinds of project risk factor’s effect on schedule,cost,quality and HSSE to finish the risk evaluation of project.Finally,this thesis applying upon theory in China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project as an example to show the importance of project risk management and to check and verify the proposed method’s scientific nature.