Study On The Simulation For Security Of China's Maritime Energy Transportation Channel Based On Multi Agent System

Energy security is a great strategic problem in the society and economic development in China. Under the conditions of rising oil import amount and dependence degree on abroad, the import security of oil, as the main energy type, is the most important link in the energy security in China. Sea transport is the main transport way of oil import. Therefore, aiming at the sea transport channels of energy in China, the oil transport corporations are researched and their data are collected, the status of sea transport channels of oil in China is summarized based on references, and the security factors affecting the sea transport channels are analyzed, which are classified into the inherent factors and the actual factors. Moreover, the theory and methods of Multi-Agent System, i.e., definitions, development process, Agent structure, modeling methods, and simulation process, are hackled. Based on the above analyses, a multi-agent simulation model of Middle East transport channels of oil import in China is established using the NetLogo platform, the simulation scheme is design, and the simulation program is developed. Simulation results show that: the simulation scheme is reasonable and basically meets the reality; the increase proportion of quantity of oil tankers is less than that of oil transport amount; the actual security factors, e.g., pirates, and the inherent security factors, e.g., tropical cyclone, have great influence on the security of sea transport channels, and the more increase proportion the pirates and the tropical cyclone have, the more changing probability the oil transport amount has.