Analysis And Prediction Of Environmental Stability Of The Decommissioning Uranium Tailings Pond Based On Fuzzy Mathematics Theory

Uranium tailings pond is not only a major hazards, is also a huge long-term potential radioactive sources, radioactive nuclide in tailings pond, heavy metals and other toxic and harmful substances through the proliferation, migration to the ecological environment around the tailings pond(water, soil and atmospheric) caused serious pollution, and therefore must be conducted for uranium tailings pond on treatment. Currently in to evaluate the safety of the uranium tailings pond only consider the mechanical stability of the dam body, obviously it has been unable to meet the uranium tailings pond on treatment of ecological environment protection and sustainable development needs. Therefore, in this paper, by means of fuzzy mathematics theory, and combines rough set and neural network theory and other methods of decommissioning uranium tailings pond environmental stability is analyzed and predicted, the main research work including:(1) Collected a decommissioned uranium tailings pond thirty-six consecutive months of environmental monitoring data, the system examines the decommissioning of uranium tailings pond discharge of waste water, waste gas, the surface radiation environmental factors such as the dynamic variation law with time, through the characterization of environmental factors on the stabilization process is analyzed.(2) Rough set theory is introduced, in the process, on the basis of the original data by the method of attribute reduction environment index system for the calculation and analysis, it is concluded that the core index, which influence the stability of uranium tailings pond environment and set up for atmospheric environment, the tailings seepage and radioactive pollution indicators of decommissioning uranium tailings pond environmental stability index system.(3) By fuzzy mathematics theory, this paper proposes a new stability analysis method of uranium tailings environment, at a precise mathematical language defines the index of the stability range and environmental stability factor, combined with the example is analyzed. Results show that after a period of treatment after the uranium tailings pond environmental stability as a whole is still in a poor state, the factors such as p H and radioactive nuclide Po, Pb should be special treatment.(4) Make use of the artificial neural network is a powerful nonlinear mapping function, and constructed based on BP neural network theory of uranium tailings pond environmental stability prediction model, and by using the monitoring data of network training and simulation, the predict result was consistent with actual situation; And through the single factor variable method is further analyzed the influence degree of each index change of environmental stability for uranium tailings pond comprehensive evaluation provides a new method.