The Research On The Carbon Emission Price's Influence Factors

As the research further develops on issue of climate change, the carbon emission market gain more and more attention of the governments and interest groups. In the process of reducing carbon emission, as one of the market driving force the carbon emission price plays a crucial part. Its volatility is caused by a variety of factors, The typical characteristics of the carbon emission price are uncertain, nonlinear, dynamic and so on. This paper focuses on the discussion to analyze the carbon emission price from the perspective of the factors.This paper adopts the combination of theoretical and empirical research methods to explore the influence factors of the carbon emission price. First, it introduces the background and the significance of the selected topic, the intensive study of the carbon emission price's influence factors has duplicate meaning of both theoretical study and reality. And then define the carbon emission price and its related concepts, followed by classifying the carbon emission market, and study the carbon emission market from the trading system, transactions manners and transaction price. Based on that, we discuss the carbon emission market supply and demand theory. Then this paper analyzes the status of the EU ETS'and China's carbon emission market and the volatility characteristics of the EU ETS'carbon emission price. Due to the highest price, largest trading volume and the biggest market proportion of EU ETS' carbon emission market is the world, study the characteristics of the price fluctuation is representative. And we discuss how the factors such as energy prices, industrial production, heterogeneous environment, policy affect the carbon emission price from its price volatility. Because the policy factors are difficult to quantify, then this paper using some empirical methods such as cointegration test, VEC model, grange causality test, impluse response and variance decomposition to test how the energy price,industrial production, heterogeneous environment affect the carbon emission price. It was found that they are in balanced and stable relations in the long term, energy price has a positive correlation relationship with the carbon emission price, industrial production and the carbon emission price also has a positive correlation relationship, heterogeneous environment with carbon emission price has a negative correlation, and heterogeneous environment impacts most on the carbon emission price in the long term discuss. Energy price impacts most on the carbon emission price in the short term discuss, and heterogeneous environment second. Although industrial production has no significant influence on the carbon emission price in the short term, it may due to the low carbon emission price or the loose carbon emission quota, so that enterprises focus little on the carbon emission price when they make the production decisions. Finally, according to the result of the theoretical and empirical analysis we can forward some corresponding policy recommendations to stabilize China's carbon emission price fluctuation. From the point of energy, we should stabilize the energy markets, improve energy efficiency and develop the clean energy; from the industrial production perspective, we should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, improve the development model of high pollution and emission and reduce carbon emission in order to reduce the carbon emission price; from the heterogeneous environment side, although the economic crisis is unable to control, we can still establish the carbon trading risk management system to improve the ability to face the crisis and to reduce the impact of the carbon emission price volatility.