A Forecast Of The Amount Of Recovery In Obsolete CRT Leaded Glass

With the constant progress of science and technology,a large number of Cathode ray rube TVs have been eliminated and gradually drop out of the life of people.However,that abandoned the CRT display effect on humans hasn’t been cut down.If wasted CRT monitors do not have effective treatment,which leaded glass may do great harm to human beings and the whole ecological environment.Wasted CRT glass with lead contains a variety of toxic and harmful substance,especially lead level is higher,if the landfill directly,can cause the pollution of soil and water.Plants and animals absorb lead by water.It is gradually enriched in food,eventually enter human body so as to cause serious damage to human health.If wasted CRT monitors is properly handled,CRT leaded glass is also can be the comprehensive utilization of the valuable resources.For example the lead content lower screen could be used to make foam glass,sintered materials products and glass ceramic raw materials,while high levels of the cone glass can be gained through the new technology of renewable resources,lead to achieve economic,social and ecological benefits of coordinated development.To from quantitative angle to study the realistic feasibility of recycling waste CRT leaded glass,in this thesis,by means of model research methods,using historical data to waste CRT monitors in our country,this paper mainly includes the CRT TV and desktop computer CRT monitor)production and cumulative amount of discharge and waste CRT glass with lead and waste CRT glass with lead is not in the effective use of scrap lead quantity and cumulative quantity value is forecasted.In this thesis,the main content: first,through literature review,select the most suitable for this model method of the research on the Stanford prediction model and time series analysis model;Second,select the existing historical data in 1990-2012 index as the foundation,through layer upon layer of diminishing logical relationship,construct the Stanford prediction model,including waste CRT monitors production forecasting formulas,waste CRT glass with lead scrap lead production forecasting formulas and waste CRT glass with lead accumulation quantity prediction formula;Then,through the way of literature study and questionnaire survey to Stanford formula of prediction model parameters quantitatively setting;Finally,through the data iteration to get the estimate of 1990-2015 and 1990-2020 time series analysis forecast,and the corresponding numerical results were objectively analyzed.In this paper,the main research conclusions are as follows:1.The CRT waste and waste discharge desktop computer CRT display histogram movements were inverted "U" type,and reach the maximum 69.2664 million,respectively,in 2009 and 27.1319 million,predicts that by 2020,the cumulative amount will reach 722.7863 million waste CRT TVS,waste desktop computer CRT monitors cumulate 18.4546 million units.2.Year 2015,waste CRT glass with lead(including screen glass and cone glass)accumulation volume of 16.70802 million tons,predicts that by 2020 the cumulative amount will be close to 18 million tons,which leaded higher cone glass is up to 6 million tons.3.According to the forecast that by 2020,our country did not effectively use waste CRT monitors the total discharge waste lead will reach 1.32582 million tons,close to China’s 2010-2012 annual average secondary lead production.4.Year 1999-2014 for our country scrap concentrated period of CRT monitor,predict 2015 years later,to scrap the CRT display to low levels of decreasing trend,in a large amount of waste CRT glass is just piled with lead,how to effectively implement the recycling of waste CRT glass with lead has been more and more urgent.