Statistical Study Of "The New Type Of Rural Social Old-age In Surance" On Influence Mechanism Of Total Household Consumption Of Rural Residents

In this paper,the research subject is the mechanism of impact on the consumption of rural residents by the new rural social pension insurance.Using the latest data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,establish instrumental variables model and quantile regression model and discuss the influence mechanism of the new rural social pension insurance on the total consumption of households in details.Firstly,Combine the life cycle consumption theory and data statistical characteristics to set the initial model.Based on life cycle theory of consumption,set total household consumption,household assets,average income,age,self-rated health,marital status and insurance as the main variables and extract the sample and analyze the statistical characteristics of data.Find that the new agricultural insurance has trend of promoting total household consumption;total household consumption in logarithmic kernel density estimation approximates normal distribution and the fitting curve of household assets and total household consumption is in logarithmic convex,suspected high order items missing.So total household consumption and household assets were taken to replace the original variable to complete the preliminary set of the model.Secondly,establish the instrumental variables model and research the new agricultural insurance effect mechanism of rural households on average.After testing the initial model~'s function form,heteroscedasticity,normality and endogenous.According to the endogenous explanatory variable"whether the insured",selecte"the proportion of residents of community pension"as instrumental variables and test its effectiveness.Using two stage least squares method,establish the instrumental variable model(3.37),and analyze the accuracy.According to the instrumental variable model,we can know the different sense of the new agricultural insurance effect on rural households total consumption and know various factors on the marginal effect of total household consumption.Found the new agricultural insurance marginal impact on total household consumption is 21%unchanged in other factors,for the poor health groups,the insured is 2%higher than the uninsured on the total household consumption;for good health groups,the insured is 21%higher than uninsured on the total household consumption;for the insured groups,the poor healthy is 26%higher than the good healthy on total household consumption;for the uninsured population,the poor healthy is 45%higher than the good healthy on total household consumption.Thirdly,establish quantile regression model based on instrumental variable model,to have more comprehensive study of the new agricultural insurance effect mechanism of rural residents in total household consumption in different sites.We use Markov Chain Marginal Bootstrap which can simply complexity of the estimation to estimate the parameters(see table 4.1),in order to completely determine the model(4.1).According to the results we can see the different effects of different sites in the new agricultural insurance for different consumption levels of total household consumption.Through comprehensive analysis,found that the new agricultural insurance effect for high consumption and low household consumption is relatively small,and the biggest beneficiaries are the middle level of consumption..Finally,this paper summarizes the full text and puts forward some suggestions.