Numerical Simulation And Hazard Analysis Of Typhoon Storm Surge Based On ADCIRC Model

Typhoon storm surge is the most serious marine hazards in our country,and it causes heavy economic loss every year.In order to reduce the economic loss,typhoon storm surge hazard analysis is necessary.At present,historical data analysis and numerical simulation are commonly used in the typhoon storm surge hazard assessment.Historical data analysis requires a large number of measured data.But in general,the measured data are scarce.Based on the synthetic typhoons,numerical simulation can generate a large number of typhoon storm surges,and then risk analysis can be done using the simulated results.However,the reliability of the results depends on the accuracy of the typhoon wind field.Terrain,astronomical tides also affect the typhoon storm surge.This paper presents a research on typhoon storm surge numerical simulation using Jelesnianski model + ADCIRC model,and storm surge hazard analysis based on the numerical simulation approach and random sampling of statistical models of typhoon key parameters.Jelesnianski model is an empirical model,which is widely used in the numerical simulation of typhoons.Jelesnianski model can be used to simulate typhoon wind field and pressure field.The applicability of Jelesnianski model in Guangdong coasts is studied with four historical typhoon processes.ADCIRC model is widely used in the numerical simulation of typhoon storm surge with consideration of the effect of terrain,astronomical tides,etc.In this paper,ADCIRC model is used to simulate the typhoon storm surge,and its applicability is investigated with validation by an actual storm surge process,by inputing Jelesnianski fields as the driven force.Finally,stochastic simulation of typhoons based on the statistical models of typhoon key parameters and a straight track model is done,and then by implementing the Jelesnianski model + ADCIRC model scheme,a large number of typhoon storm surges are generated.The Gumbel method is used to fit the distribution of yearly maximum surge,and extrame storm surges with different return periods are predicted.