Analysis Of Climate Change And Its Influence In Xinzheng

In this paper,observational data(1961-2015)of air temperature and precipitation from the National Weather station of Xinzheng City have been used to analyze the variability of Xinzheng climate preliminarily.Firstly,we analyze the trends of precipitation and air temperature by the conventional linear trend method,and different contribution of the four seasons to annual were analyzed by EOF.In addation,test the abrupt change of precipitation and air temperature by MK method and moving t-test,and discuss the cycle of variability by power spectrum and wavelet analysis.Furthermore,the influence of climate change on agricultural production and water resources are be explored.The main conclusions can be summarized as follows:The temperature trend of Xinzheng City was overall upward,the mutation point of the climate warming occurred in 1991.Interannual change showed it has a downward fluctuating from 1960 s to early 1980 s,and started an obvious warming from the mid 1980 s to 1990 s.Meanwhile,the seasonal difference is significant in temperature changes,the averaged increase rate of winter temperature was 0.35? per decade,and its mutation point was in 1991,spring was 0.33? per decade,the mutation point was in 1994,autumn was 0.21 ? per decade,the mutation point was in 1987.The statistically significant oscillation with 4a and 2~3a period generally exists in the annual mean temperature and the average temperature of the four seasons.However,the summer temperature was decreasing by rate of 0.06? per decade,and its mutation point was in 1970.In addition,the four eigenvectors from the EOF analysis of seasonal temperature in the period of 1961-2015 may properly reflect that the winter warming trend dominated he annual temperature change in the past 55 years.Xinzheng City is a place with an annual precipitation of 684.1mm,it has a maximum annual rainfall of 1172 mm,and a minimum of 398 mm.The annual precipitation is mainly concentrated from June to September,accounting for about 65.7%.The monthly precipitation is quite different,it has significant seasonal variations,which named wet and dry seasons,with a single peak in July.In recent 55 years,the precipitation of Xinzheng city showed an overall downward trend,but the mutation was not exist in the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation.The statistically significant oscillation with 2~4 year period generally exists in the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation,and the winter precipitation has interdecadal oscillations like 12 a.The annual precipitation determines the dominated role of winter wheat and summer corn.Because the amount of precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat was about 234.6mm,which is not enough for the plants growing,the irrigation is needed in the growth season of winter wheat.Despite abundant precipitation in summer of corn growth period(449.4mm),sometimes the corn still need irrigation due to heavy evaporation.The climatic potential productivity trend of Xinzheng was a slight rise.Rrecipitation was the main driving forces of the change of climatic potential productivity,and it also is a significant factor affecting yield of winter Wheat.Winter wheat meteorological yield had a significant positive correlation with precipitation during growing period and precipitation in February.The meteorological yield of summer maize was negatively correlated with precipitation in late June.In dry year,surface water resources affected by temperature is relatively significant,and in wet year,the total amount of surface water resources is obvious under the discharge of precipitation.Precipitation and temperature changes indirectly impacts on the industrial production water of Xinzheng by influencing the total amount of water resources and the water consumption of agricultural production.Domestic water consumption is affected by summer temperature.