| Spatial data analysis is a process of deriving new data or extracting spatial information from existing data,and processing spatial data into useful information.In the field of public-health research,spatial data analysis is applied to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of cases,identify high-risk areas and related risk factors,predict and control disease based on the time,space and environment factorsinformation of cases.Currently,related studies on the application of spatial data analysis in public-health field increasing rapidly in China,and is becoming a new technical means of epidemiology and public-health research.Henan province is a populous province,densely populated.From 2007 to 2009,annual reports the number of cases of HFMD is 918,11830 and 101665,the annual incidence is 0.09*10-4,1.26*10-4 and10.78*10-4,the number of cases and incidence increased multiply.2009 compared with 2008,annual reports the number of cases of HFMD increased by 7.59 times,the third in the nation,and the annual incidence of HFMD is ninth in the country.In henan province,especially in the rural areas with relatively backward economic development andpublic-health conditions,so it is of great significance to detect time-space clusters with incidence,quantitative analysis of the risk factors for predicting and controlling HFMD outbreak,and cut losses of public security and economic.It is an important innovation of this study to explore application of spatial data analysis in epidemiology and public-health field from the perspective of time and space.The research methods in this study can provide references for related research,and the results of the study has important reference meanings for understanding the space-time distribution law and related risk factors of HFMD,formulatingrelevant measures of prevention and control and policies,and allocating medical resources reasonably for public health departments in Henan province.This study conducted GIS spatial data analysis on HFMD cases data which was from may to December county in 2008 henan province.First of all,summarizes the current main research content of GIS spatial data analysis technology and application in the field of public-health,expounded the basic theory and methods of spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression in the study of disease data,and introduces the main spatial analysis software and tools.Next,performing descriptive analysis on the basis of data statistics of HFMD in henan province in 2008,and analyzing the incidence of spatial correlation and heterogeneity.Finally,exploring the relationship between incidence and socio-economic factors such as population density,the number of kindergarten,per capita GDP,health institutions beds,and meteorological factors such as monthly average pressure,monthly average temperature,monthly average relative humidity,monthly rainfall,the number of days rainfall of more than 0.1 mm,wind speed respectively by building a spatial regression model and spatial panel data model.The main conclusions are as follows:?1?through the descriptive statistical analysis found that May and June were peak time of HFMD with higher incidence,the highest incidence in May after gradually reduce.?2?Established space distribution map,calculated Moran's I according to the adjacency and distance between counties,the results greater than 0 are 0.0246,0.1004,0.0444 and 0.0246.Indicated that the spatial distribution of HFMD incidence in Henan province existed positively spatial autocorrelation,Moran's I based on the adjacency relation is greater than based on distance relationship.?3?The calculation results of the local index spatial autocorrelation?LISA?showed thatthere were positive correlation in most of the counties?city?,while some positive area surrounded by negative zone,indicating that HFMD incidence at the county level existed spatial heterogeneity.?4?The analysis of spatial regression model found that has no statistical significance between the incidence of HFMD and the number of kindergarten,there were positive correlationbetween the incidence of HFMD and population density,per capita GDP,health institutions beds,and the goodness of fit test of the spatial error model?SEM?was better than ordinary linear regression model?OLS?.?5?The statistical results of the spatial panel data model showed that the monthly incidence of HFMD was positively correlated with monthly average pressure,monthly average temperature,monthlyaverage relative humidity and monthly rainfall?p<0.05?,there has no correlated with the number of days rainfall of more than 0.1 mm and wind speed?p>0.05?.When monthly average pressure,monthly average temperature,monthly average relative humidity and monthly rainfall increased will lead to higher incidence of HFMD per month. |
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