Research On Several Intervention Methods Of Epidemic Disease With Latent Period

Epidemic disease have always been a major threat for human health in the history of human developement.Currently,the influenza still threaten us,which is famous for high incidence and mortality.Therefore,how to prevent and control influenza becomes primary consideration for human facing influenza.However,it is impractical to search the epidemic disease with experimental means for the dynamics of infectious disease,theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are better for the consideration of the epidemic than experimental means.Mathematical models are importantly theoretical methods for disease study.On the basis of epidemic diseases with latent period,this paper applies the epidemic dynamic model to consider the effectiveness of a few control measures for influenza pademic with latent period.This paper detailedly describe as follows:1.With the compartmental model SEI_TI_NR,we research the control method of antiviral drugs treat for influenza pademic with latent period(It is proposed by ARINAMINPATHY N et al,antiviral drugs is mainly for treat,not prevention).Taking into account the actual limited antiviral drugs storage capacity,we study the relationship between the drug coveragea and the per captia amount of distribution of drugs m in the restricted condition of limited antiviral drugs storage and distribution.The expression of total cost uder the control method of antiviral drugs treat and the effectiveness of control measures as well as total cost for different drug coverage ?.Simulation results suggest that the drug coverage reaches 68% and per capita distribute drug sares up to 5 does.We can successfully control the flu outreak.Also it shows that with the increase of drug coveragea,the number of symptomatic patients is decreased remarkably,also as the total cost.So,we should increase the per capita amount of distribution of drugs and drug coverage properly in the early stages of an outbreak.With such control measures,we not only could control well the transmission process of influenza,but also avoid unnecessary waste of resources.2.With the compartmental model SEI_QI_NAR,we assess the effect of strategy which combines antiviral drugs with isolation for influenza pademic with latent period,we consider the mobility of patients with latent period and asymptomatic.Specially,we focus on the effect of symptomatic patient isolation ratio.Simulation results suggest that isolation strategy plays a prominent role in containingtransmission when antiviral drugs is not effective enough,and only need to isolate a small number of symptomatic patients every day.We give the expression of the number of treated and isolated people in the control process,also derive an estimation for the total cost of these intervention strategies.Meanwhile,the approximate expression of these variables is obtained.Simulation results suggest that the true and approximate values of these variables are equal within a certain margin if error.In addition,the results show that antiviral drugs dose should be appropriately used,but the isolation ratio increase properly in the control process.Thus,we could control the spread of influenza well,but also reduce the control costs.