A Research Of Epidemic Control Strategy Based On Several Mathematical Models

Mathematical model is recognized as an important theoretical method of epidemiology because it can simulate the spread of epidemic, it's helpfully to predict the development trend of epidemics and plan various possible control the spread of epidemics. In this paper, epidemiological dynamics model and epidemic chain model were used to study the effect of several influenza control measures.In the early stages of the outbreak, antiviral drugs and isolation have become the primary means of controlling the flu due without the effective vaccines. On the other hand, the health sector timely release of information about the epidemic in order to enhance public awareness of prevention and personal protection behavior, to reduce the risk of infection. For these reason, we develop SAEQIR model by the epidemiological dynamics method to describe the epidemic spread process, in this study included the issuing epidemic information strategy, using antiviral drugs strategy and isolation strategy to control influenza. The simulation results show that issue epidemic information is very significant for the control of epidemic outbreaks. With the increase of precaution rate p and the reduction of virus infectivity factor ? the percentage of the infected and the isolates is significantly reduced, the parameters(n,q) set that can control the outbreak of epidemic are significantly increased, so public health organizations should disseminate epidemic information in a timely and detailed manner as far as possible. The effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis to control epidemic transmission is relevant to its efficacy, and it is not clear whether the drug is effective in preventing the new virus. Therefore, this paper considers antiviral drugs and isolation.The result show that isolation can effectively control the spread of epidemic, when the isolation rate q > 0.5 can eliminate the adverse effects cause by antiviral drug efficacy.However, the effectiveness of isolation is related to the timing of implement isolation measures, delayed isolation will result in a significant reduction in control effect. When the delayed isolation makes the relative infectivity parameter ? value is too large, the outbreak of the epidemic will be inevitable, so the sooner the implementation of isolation measures in order to get better control effect.In addition, considering the house is the main place of disease spread, this article based on the epidemic household model for the characteristics of internal disease, this paper use epidemic chain C=(c1,c2,c3…)to describe the propagation process. We used the household reproduction number RH and the escape probability pj in household model to assess the effect of antiviral drugs and house-isolation to control influenza.The influences of the drug release time and the isolation proportion on the epidemic control were studied. Simulation show that early isolation can eliminate the effect of delay release antiviral drugs, if delays of 1 days occur the start of antiviral prophylaxis then voluntary house-isolation rates of q >0.5 , are required to have a same effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. In our paper study the effect of delay implemented voluntary house-isolation. Result show the impact of voluntary house-isolation strategy will be significantly weakened with increasing delay in the implementation of voluntary home-isolation. If delays of 2 days occur the start of voluntary house-isolation, it has a scarcely effect on reducing the transmission of influenza. We use the infection chain to calculate the number of outbreak in different population size, construct the likelihood function to obtain the estimated value of escape probability pj and estimate the final number of infected persons.