Research On DSS Model Base Of Apple Production

Our country is one of main country apple production in the world with its largest cultivated area and highest yield. Shandong Province isa vital apple producing areain China. Although China hasits enormous production in apples, itlacksthe ability of market selling.There are many problems in Chinese apple-production, such as small scale of the producing area, decentralized management, the low level of standardized management,which seriously restrict the improvement of apple production. Discussingapple trees' fresh shoots growth law, shoot types and amount of changing in a dynamic branch acres, analyzing apple cultivated area, yield and prices, and the built a decision support systems ofapple production has its theoretical significance and practical value.This paperis focus on the apple trees structure, the average yield and price andbased on the sampling survey and data analysis.Aiming at the demand in current price forecastand apple production forecast, this paper.takes Yantai and Weihai two major apple-producing areasfor example for to study apple production management models,and then study the apple production decision support system model bases.The main contents and innovations are as follows:(1)Research on correlation models of apple production management. On the basis of a sampling survey, we establishthe dynamic modelsin branch composition and branch numberchanging ofhigh and stable yield tree.To improvement of existing new shoot growth dynamic model makes it more consistent with the current production for high and stable yield tree.The principal component regression model and time series model is established based on the production and meteorological data of Yantai and Weihai City. ARIMA model of time series analysis of apple price prediction is established based on the monthly average price of Red Fuji in Shandong province from September 2010 to January 2016.(2) Research on correlation models base of apple production management. Integrated apple production related to the management model and build apple production decision support system model base.It containstrunk girth changing model,growthdynamic model of new shoot, branch composition and branch number changing modelsofhigh and stable yieldapple trees, and yield and price forecasting models. On the basis of the needs analysis, we build the model base of detailed structural design and functional design and implement automatic calling and comparative analysis of the model.Using SSH integration and development technology,MVC development model, the use of MySQL database, Tomcat server to complete the apple production decision support system development model base.According to trunk girth growth model, dynamic model of newshoots growth, shoots types and branch number per 667m2 changing dynamic model of high and stable yield trees, we can judge whether the size of trunk girth, new shoot length, ratio of different branches and branches number per 667m2 of apple orchard are in the normal range..It can give decision support program, to provide effective decision support for fruit trees pruning, fertilizing watering and so on.