Decision Support System Of Jewelry Sales Based On Time Series Model

With the rapid development of economy, there is an increasingly fierce competition between sales of jewelry enterprises. In the face of changing market, in order to improve the economic benefit of enterprises and enhance the enterprise’s competitiveness and vitality, we have to make the full use of real-time market information, adjust enterprise decision-making timely, and reduce inventory and business operating costs. It’s a very effective competition strategy that guiding the procurement of goods and improving inventory management by the future sales forecast with historical data from enterprises.A decision support system of jewelry sales based on time series model has been designed and achieved, by using time series model to forecast the future quantity of sale of different goods in different stores, and according to the prediction results and store inventory information to provide decision support for future products purchasing and distribution. First, analyze some time series model commonly used in sales forecast, and then select the appropriate forecasting model according to the past data, and finally develop decision support system of jewelry sales based on.NET platform. The research suggests that most of company sales data has strong seasonal pattern by analyzing sales data in past ten years in various stores. Therefore, the system chooses three seasonal time series model:Winters linear and seasonal exponential smoothing method, multiple regression analysis with dummy variable method and the seasonal ratio method. Three models are used to verify the company historical sales data, and the results show that all the three algorithms can predict the goods sales to a certain extent.At present, the system has been developed and put into use in Baoruiyuan company, and the system get a good reflection. Products sales forecast for the system achieve a high prediction precision, and the decision-making plan of procurement and distribution received the affirmation of the company decision makers.