The Research Of Financial Risk Early Warning On Real Estate

It is the critical period of development for Chinese economic transformation. China is adapted to the new normal status of economic growth. Government intervention gave way to independent regulation of the market, which put forward the challenge to the enterprise’s survival and development. The way what managers should do to comply with the change of macro environment is difficult. It is particularly important for managers to foresee the change of the financial risk in the process of operation and timely take measures.Financial risk early warning model can judge the financial risk of the enterprise from quantitative factors, help enterprise timely forecast financial risk, reduce the possibility of enterprise financial crisis and promote the benign development of the enterprise. At the same time, the real estate industry has relatively large investment demand and long capital turnover. Its development is affected by national macroeconomic. In recent years, a large number of real estate failures reflect that the management risk of real estate industry is rather bigger. However, most real estate enterprises did not pay attention to financial risk early warning mechanism. Thus establishing an effective real estate financial risk early warning model is particularly important.The paper’s research enriches the application of the financial risk early warning model in the real estate industry based on the former research. The paper is based on traditional financial risk early warning mode, using Fisher discriminant and case analysis, analyzing financial statement data of the real estate industry, selecting the relevant financial indicators of real estate enterprise financial risk, establishing financial risk early warning model for real estate enterprises. In case analysis, the paper choose AL real estate enterprise as the research object, by the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, including the macro environment, industry environment, competition environment, market demand and the enterprise’s advantages and disadvantages, etc. The paper analyze AL enterprise’s internal and external environment, using the established financial risk early warning model, identifying its financial risk, and putting forward to suggestions and measures for reference. The following conclusions are based on the research of the full article: Fisher discriminant is fit for real estate enterprises in our country, but the accuracy needs to be improved; the financial risk of the real estate industry affected by the solvency index, the profitability index, and the ratio of fixed assets to total assets and the growth of net assets. Enterprises should strengthen the consciousness of risk and control the financial risk; the change of the macroeconomic environment has led to the financial risk of the real estate enterprises and competitive pressure increased. Enterprises should take timely measures to avoid failure.The innovative points of thispaper are mainly as follows. The paper established financial risk early warning model based on the basic theoretical framework and the method system, innovative joined qualitative analysis, combined qualitative analysis with quantitative research, and selected financial indicators highly associated with financial risk. At the same time, this paper selected the real estate industry which few scholars study, establishing the financial risk early warning model applied to the real estate industry with case analysis method. The paper can help real estate enterprises face the financial risk, and arrange the resources reasonably to avoid financial crisis.