Analysis Of Financial Warning

The world economy has experienced the process of swinging forward in the past one hundred years, including the smooth development and underestimate, such as: the first worldwide economic crisis in 1857,the capitalism world economic crisis in 1929-1933, oil crisis in1973-1975, black Monday in 1987, the southeast Asian financial crisis of1997, and the us subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. The destruction brought by this worldwide economic crisis is more and more serious.Under this large macro background, scholars from both domestic and foreign began to study enterprise financial early warning, and they have achieved important research results in this field. Because of the late process of the economy marketization in our country, so does the the field of financial early warning research. For the need of the development of national economy, Chinese scholars also made the hard work in this area,they have made important achievements to provides important reference basis for domestic enterprise financial management risk. Manufacturing industry is the first leading industry in our country, their financial condition can reflect the development of economy in our country,to some extent, at the same time they have the role of the barometer.This paper will first introduce the research background from domestic and abroad, and then explain the meaning and purpose of thestudy of financial early warning model, introduce the theoretical basis and analysis method of the financial crisis, then introduce the model choose in this paper; finally, show the empirical analysis. This paper selected the first time ST listed companies in manufacturing industry in the year 2013 and 2014- 9 in 2013 and 16 in 2014. According to the scale of these25 companies and niche business, with the proportion of 1:2, I selected 50 normal companies to match the 25, select the financial index and non-financial, to build three models to predict, compare the results of the three models, then draw the conclusion.