| Most factors for price fluctuation of international commodities, among previous research and analysis, were found out from all kinds of emergencies and political-economical environment; however, with the developments of futures and options trading, electronic trading and paper swaps trading, factor of trading psychology tends to be more and more important for price fluctuation of international commodities.During trading session of international commodities, especially the session of futures and options trading, electronic trading and paper swaps trading, traders’ individual trading psychology forms into group trading psychology, and group trading psychology reacts on individual trading psychology. Individual trading psychology and group trading psychology interact with each other to eventually act on market price fluctuation with market supply and demand change on varieties of trading volume, trading mode, trading time and transaction frequency resulted from trading psychology. With the purpose of avoiding any major error through examining trading psychology during trading session, the essay attempts to explore whether or not trading psychology will act on price fluctuation of international commodities through affecting supply and demand. The essay, under theory of supply and demand, describes the features and market of international commodities, elaborates the change of factors acting on price fluctuation of international commodities, and explores the function of trading psychology to price fluctuation. The essay firstly attempts to point out the efficiencies among research and analysis from existing literatures on market price fluctuation of international commodities. Then the essay describes features and market of bulk commodities and factors acting on price fluctuation, and illuminates the market traders, trading behavior and trading psychology. Afterwards, the essay explores the conduction of trading psychology to market supply and demand, and attempts to analysis the acting of trading psychology on price fluctuation of international commodities. Also, the essay discusses the interacting between trading psychology and market price through a real case from international liquid petroleum gas market. With three points concluded:1) "Factor of trading psychological" impacts market supply and demand by affecting trading volume, trading pace and trading frequency, and finally acts on price fluctuation of international commodities; 2) With varieties of markets, commodities and trading positions, "Factor of trading psychological" has different impacts on price fluctuation of international commodities; 3) The interacting and interconverting between individual psychology and group psychology forms market trend and turning point of international commodities, finally, this essay gives out some suggestions on market analysis and trading strategy of international commodities with the purpose to avoiding any major trading mistakes. |
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