The Determinant Of Inbound Tourism In China Based On Gravity Model

Inbound tourism in China has a rapid and widespread growth these years. Both tourist arrivals and tourism receipts have a huge increase overall. However, according to the statistics of annual report of China-inbound tourism by China Tourism Academy, we find tourist arrivals have a small decrease fluctuation. In this context, we aim to find the determinants of inbound tourism in China in order to improve the tourist arrivals in the future.We estimate the determinants of inbound tourism in China by using a panel gravity model equation of 178 origin countries from 1995 to 2012. The gravity model equation came from the Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation, which reveal international flows increase with the economic size of countries and decrease as the distance between them increases. This model is used extensively in empirical research because of goodness of fit. About the determinants of inbound tourism in China, the model is augmented using three different sets of factors: economic relationship variables, geographic variables, and cultural affinity variables. In the process of analysis, we take account the determinants in term of the global tourism market, meanwhile, we pay attention to the determinants in term of the regional tourism market, including Asia, Europe, America, Africa, Oceania, in order to have more detail knowledge to give detail strategies.The results show us in term of economic relationship, the relative purchasing price parity play a negative relationship which suggest the exchange rate of origin country downward in contrast to China, the tourist arrivals will decrease. While trade volume have a positive relationship with tourist arrivals in China. In term of geography, the annual average temperature, the cloudy days per year, and the landlocked countries play a negative role in tourist arrivals in China. However the common border increase tourist arrivals in China. In term of culture, the common language, the numbers of migration suggest a positive relationship with tourist arrivals in China. However, religion play a negative relationship with tourist arrivals in China. Besides, we also get some interesting results about the determinants of tourist arrivals in China in term of regional tourism market.