Analysis And Development Forecast Of Inbound Tourist Source Market In Jiangsu Province

With the improvement of the national economic level,people's living conditions are getting better and better,so people pay more attention to spiritual needs and seek spiritual satisfaction.Tourism is a new industry in China,which continuously promotes economic growth.Inbound tourism can increase foreign exchange income,so it is necessary to support the development of inbound tourism.Since the reform and opening up,China has made great progress in the development of inbound tourism.With a satisfactory answer,China has become a major tourism country in the world,which plays an important role in increasing China's foreign exchange income and improving its international status.Jiangsu Province,as one of China's strong economic provinces,the development of tourism is no less than other provinces.Jiangsu has rich tourism resources,which has a strong attraction for inbound tourism consumers.Meanwhile,the infrastructure and transportation facilities provide conditions for the development of inbound tourism.Inbound tourism is one of the important indicators to measure the economic strength of the region.The rapid development of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province reflects the strong competitiveness and sustainable development of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province.However,tourism is a highly competitive sunrise industry.To take positive measures to expand the inbound tourist market in Jiangsu Province is very important to maintain strong competitiveness and sustainable development.This paper mainly takes the inbound tourist source market of Jiangsu Province as the research object.Firstly,based on the relevant literatures at home and abroad and the development of the inbound tourism market in Jiangsu Province in recent years,based on the theoretical analysis,the inbound tourist source market in Jiangsu Province is obtained.The main influencing factors;secondly,using the 2013-2017 Jiangsu Inbound Tourism Panel data,using the gravity model to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the inbound tourist source market in Jiangsu Province,thereby identifying the main factors affecting the source market,and based on the evidence The results show the degree and importance of the main factors.Then,based on the analysis of the main source markets of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province and the influencing factors of the inbound tourism source market in Jiangsu Province,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model prediction is used.The demand for inbound tourism market in Jiangsu Province in 2018-2022,the foreign exchange income and the total demand situation of various continents in the source market;finally,according to the results of the gravity model and the GM(1,1)model,the target market is positioned and proposed to expand Jiangsu.Countermeasures and specific suggestions for the provincial inbound tourist source market.Through research,we find that from the perspective of the source area,the GDP of the source area and the total population of the source area have a significant impact on the inbound tourism of Jiangsu.The total population of the source area is negatively correlated with the demand of the inbound tourist source market in Jiangsu.GDP promotes the development of inbound tourism in Jiangsu;from the perspective of Jiangsu Province,infrastructure construction in Jiangsu Province is an important factor in promoting the development of inbound tourism in Jiangsu;from the perspective of the source of origin and Jiangsu Province,the purchasing power parity factor and Jiangsu Province The development of inbound tourism is negatively correlated,and the geographical distance will also inhibit the development of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province.At the same time,through the GM(1,1)model,we can get the total demand forecast of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2022,the forecast of tourism foreign exchange income,and the forecast of the number of people entering each region,and then draw corresponding conclusions based on the forecast results.