Agricultural Water Driving Force Analysis And Prediction Of Manas River Basin

Per capita water resources in China is one of the acute shortage of water-poor countries in the world, landlocked arid areas of Manas River Valley is typical of a serious water shortage areas, limited runoff conditions, water structure is extremely uneven. With population growth, urbanization, expansion, construction of economic development, increase of arable land, water supply and demand have become increasingly prominent, the carrying capacity of water resources has become increasingly low, the potential risks associated with water scarcity is becoming a socio-economic and natural environment a huge challenge.In this paper, the evolution of agricultural water basin full argument on the basis of the model constructed water basin. The introduction of information entropy theory to analyze the evolution of trends over the years agricultural water demand Manas River Basin. Secondly, factors affecting the evolution of agricultural water basin for analysis, and with the gray association analysis method to identify the main influencing factors. Finally, agricultural water demand forecast basin. The first part is the introduction; the second part is the related concept definition; the third part is the basin general situation and water resources development and utilization; the fourth part for agricultural watersheds water evolution driving force analysis; the fifth part for agricultural water demand prediction; the six points is the conclusion and suggestion.The main conclusions are as follows:Agricultural water use(1) From 1949 to 1989, due to the large range of pioneering, flood irrigation, water resources development and wanton; from 1989 to 2008, water basin gradually from wanton exploitation to develop transition plans. At this stage, irrigation water utilization rate of 65%, but the high norms of irrigation water efficiency is still low; since 2008, strengthened the concept of water conservation, irrigation area under control, water efficiency has been improved, with drip-oriented festival Irrigation technology be promoted, irrigation guarantee rate above 95%.(2) agricultural water basin gradually shifted from food crops production-oriented era changed to cotton production dominated era, affected a single water system, water entropy slower growth, the presence of water and tilt phenomenon, and in 2008 the most significant agricultural water tilt, with the stage after the adjustment of water policy, the Water contradictions partial remission, but still serious.(3) global warming, land salinization, crop evapotranspiration is the intrinsic factor driving the high agricultural water, irrigated area, cotton acreage increase is to increase agricultural water main external driving factors, promote saving irrigation technology to increase and enhance the efficiency of industrial water-saving irrigation area of water supply and demand is the ease of lubricant.(4) in the next 30 years, agricultural water basin overall downward trend, declining curve exponentially distributed, the rate of decline gradually slowed down, and eventually stabilize at around 2.1 billion m3. In summary, the basin should reduce cotton acreage in agricultural production, expanding the proportion of sown crops, accelerate the adjustment of planting structure optimization; in water resource constraints, continue to tap the potential of water resources utilization from the inside, improve water use efficiency canal, improve water resources development and utilization levels, water-saving technology for guidance, policy support as the support, water restructuring The main content of the development of ideas, the establishment of efficient water-saving society, accelerating the transition to the rational use of water resources by the efficient utilization.