The Research On Modeling And Simulation Of The Bullwhip Effect On The Furniture Industry

In the past 20 years, China’s furniture industry is in a rapid development stage, however, with the saturation of the furniture market, furniture industry appeared overcapacity situation. The cause of this phenomenon is that the furniture material supply chain span is too long, and the "bullwhip effect" which result from furniture supply information distortions lead to overcapacity furniture, resulting in errors of furniture enterprises in making production plans, causing inventory backlog, the benefits of a serious decline, and reducing the service level.In view of this, this article first made a systematic review of domestic and foreign research status quo, and the supply chain bullwhip effect and related concept and the principle of system dynamics are expounded and defined; then using the ideas of system dynamics to the order of the multi-stage supply chain inventory problems in modeling and simulation analysis, and on this basis, the simulations under different supply chain structure analysis, through the analysis of the results, we find out the causes of the bullwhip effect and the method of trying to weaken the bullwhip effect; Finally, the author established a system dynamic model based on VMI information structure, through the comparison and analysis of simulation results to weaken the bullwhip effect of supply chain relevant policies and Suggestions are put forward.The research results show that in the process of the traditional furniture industry supply chain management, supply chain has been affected by the "bullwhip effect" demand relationship between upstream and downstream enterprises, it makes the enterprise to the market demand forecast error leading to excess demand or inventory; From the simulation results, the supply chain structure optimization can weaken the bullwhip effect to the enterprise the impact of demand forecasting, and put forward the improvement of the supply chain based on VMI information structure model method, Finally countermeasures are given to weaken the supply chain bullwhip effect, such as the information sharing of supply chain, shorten the lead time, decrease source demand variations, the appropriate inventory management, adopting many batches of small batch order mode and so on.