Research On Clean Power Generation Technology Investment Decision Under Carbon Emissions Constraints

Global warming has stimulated the generation of carbon emission constraints. Emissions of greenhouse gases are contributing to climate warming, including carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the main representative of greenhouse gases. Therefore, high carbon power industry will bear the challenge of carbon emissions constraints. From the present situation of the electric power industry, high carbon coal technology has dominated and will dominate for a long time. The modification of conventional coal technology is very necessary. In an uncertain environment, power generation project investment value is different, so investors in electric power in carbon emissions constraints conditions will is faced with the problem of technology investment. Nowadays, power plants mainly use coal in China. And the volume of carbon dioxide emitted by coal-fired plants has a percentage of 42.4% in the total carbon dioxide emitted. In this context, exploring investment desicion of cleaner power generation technologies are of great significance for power generation technology innovation and development as well as the power of corporate earnings and environmental protection.Firstly, due to the domestic and foreign related research, we find the real option is most suitable to analyze the generation technologies investment under carbon emissions. Then we make detailed introduction for investment decision-making related theory; According to simulate the influence of different factors to find out the main uncertainty, and based on the real option method to establish a two stage compound options and discuss investment way and government subsidies. Finally, try to do an empirical study based on the model.The evaluation shows, Firstly, the irreversible investment and the long-time project construction of clean power generation technology make its investment decisions are easily influenced by uncertain factors in the external environment, and carbon emissions constraints adding to the uncertainty at this stage. Secondly, under the condition of carbon emissions constraints, when variety of uncertain factors, including carbon price, work together and stimulate more, generation enterprises prefer to invest to clean power generation technology. Thirdly, the greater carbon price fluctuations lead to the higher option value, which make investors more willing to invest. Finally, the policy subsidies can be take advantage to promote carbon price achieve investment threshold as soon as possible and to make power generation company earlier invest in clean power generation technology.