China Imported Wine Marketing Prospect Analysis

The data of International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) report 2015 showed that the quantity and amount of China’s wine imports has reached sixth in the world, at the same time, China’s wine consumption ranked No.5 in the world. Although the total quantity of China’s wine consumption rose, the per capita consumption in China is still low (only 0.4 liters),which is far less than the world average (six liters). However, the per capita consumption of wine in Europe is sixty liters, which is 150 times of that of China. China’s wine market has great potential. This paper used PEST to do external environment analysis of China’s imported wine market, and used marketing mix to do internal environment analysis. This paper used Rotterdam demand model to analysis China’s six main wine imports countries, and concluded China’s demand of six main imported wine countries and the relationship between the countries of origin. When wine expenditure import increases, compared with wine from Spain, Italy and the United States, Chinese consumers prefer wine from France, Australia, Chile. Imported wine from French accounts for a stable market share in the Chinese market. I use ARIMA regression procedure to account for continual adjustments in the import demand parameters of major import markets. According ARIMA forecasting results,the total wine import quantity will be 860 million liters in 2016, and in 2017 it will be 1.363 billion liters, and in 2018 it will be 1.993 billion liters. In 2018 ranking by import quantity, the four former Chinese imported wine market will be France, Chile, Spain and Australia. In 2018,the import quantity of the six Chinese wine import source countries will usher. In addition to Spain and Chile, other countries will be facing prices falling. The reason why Chinese imported wine market changes is that China had signed free trade agreements with many countries,which exempt wine import tariffs;consumer preferences changed from the high-end wine consumption based on officials to the low-end wine consumption based on ordinary consumer and business consumption. This paper also put forward reasonable proposals from the government management and marketing strategies.