Comparative Analyses Of Fresh Orange Demand Between Venezuela And Jiangxi Province, China

China have experienced a great economic develop the last30year; reminding the situation that Chinese people had on the beginning of80’s decade where probably most of the farmers in China couldn’t have food secure; after the rural reform launched towards management responsibility to household had large effects on the rural economy, fundamentally those reforms changed tge structure incentive, then the result farmers were be able to take benefits of production above the rental changes, and also benefit of the productivity improvements. And then, in the90’s Chinese government started to promote cooperation between coastal and inland, TVES (Town Village Enterprises) has resulted in the establishment of a growing number of Joint Venture in which coastal partners provide capital and technology and inland partner provide land, labor and raw material. However,21century the inequality started to rise between inner and east-coastal China, unbalanced between east-coastal with central and west China.Jiangxi Province, this is one of the inner provinces in China that has special location in subtropical region which represent good weather for huge range of agricultural products. This province is located behind of Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, and everybody knows that three provinces are economically more develop than Jiangxi, because of the infrastructure, investment; and so on. Anyhow, Chinese government promulgated new policy to develop the economic for central and west China, especially for agricultural-oriented as Jiangxi Province. In this sense, Superior Agricultural Products Plan was promulgated on2008, and Jiangxi Province became more specialized in Citrus with Washington Naval Orange.Venezuela is country in tropical zone that tries to improve the agricultural sector to reduce the dependence of imports; the develop of agricultural sector is always difficult and complicated to be success by the diversity lands, erratic climatic events, and so on; these entire situations is well characterized in tropical areas; additionally, the diverse of socioeconomic condition of the farmers and agricultural practice that is need to reach high production are other important factor; so, the citrus sector have a lot of difficulties to get good results. As with comparison and contrast in daily life, a lot of researchers often use comparison and contrast in order to try to evaluate serious objective, to look relevant features. Having the opportunity to be in China, the purpose of this study is to analysis of the Fresh Orange Demand in Jiangxi province and Venezuela as well. For this purpose will make an Econometrics Analysis of Demand of Fresh Orange, and was calculated Elasticity Price Demand and Income Demand; of course, the study of demand also will look at the supply to figure important linkages, that’s why we also have done Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) to determine the demand. Additionally, to have more understanding of the situation, Forecasting of Demand and Simulation were done in both Venezuela and Jiangxi Province. To be aware of Demand is really important for firms or governments to estimate impact of policy, raise revenue, improve planning; and so on.The data was collected from Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economic, From1993to2010years was collected data of price of citrus, income of household, production of citrus, and temperature in that area. In the case of Venezuela was used the Agricultural Census Data from Venezuela and also from FAO from1998to2012was collected data of orange price; that is a statistical research made by Venezuela Agricultural Ministry; also the data was collected from Venezuela National Statistic Institute, Confederation Associations of Agricultural Producer of Venezuela.In spite of the culture difference, location, and so on; the fresh orange fruit has different value for Venezuelan and Jiangxi Province China. For Venezuelan people, when the income rises quantity demanded falls as consumers switch to more luxurious products, it is different behavior from people from Jiangxi Province that when income rises quantity demanded also increases, so there are different power to purchase. The People from Jiangxi Province are more affected on the familiar budget when the price of Orange raises comparative with Venezuelan people.In the case of Venezuela the demand is price inelastic, a fall in price leads to a fall in revenue, the increase in the quantity demanded does not compensate for the fact that each unit is selling for less; therefore, to increase revenue when demand is price inelastic, the producers should increase price, and this aspect the government may be do not allow, the farmers should search new markets or add value to the fruit. In this case of China, there is a lot of subsidy to the farmers as a part of promulgated policy and also more control of the pricing by the government. The result of2SLS for Venezuela and Jiangxi Province have not gotten good result as predictor, even proxy were not good, and the error were so high in both cases, main of the reason was the data that was not enough to get better performance.The Forecasting of orange consumption in Jiangxi Province and Venezuela using times series and ARIMA methodology showed better results, there were results more closed to the real situation; of course, we used only one dependent variable for the study, but anyway the linear tendency reflect that in the near future will not hope to have big changes in the demand. Finally, the result of the simulation showed that only22.5%can consume more than10kg of fresh orange in Jiangxi Province, which represented a data interesting being Jiangxi Province one of the best producer of orange. Reminded the criteria of the "Economic welfare depends most directly not on what a country can produce, but on what its citizens can consume the combinations of goods and services that a country’s citizens might feasibly consume", it looks that people in this province has low capacity of purchase even for consume the own product; however, there should be different reason why most of people more than10kg of orange annually.Dynamic of demand fresh orange trend in Venezuela will be rises, because of the population growth, the Venezuela National Statistic Institute believe that in2050the population will reach40million with average grow of0.5%more and less. In Jiangxi Province, trend of orange demand will increase, may be due the moving of people from rural to urban area. So, in both cases will be important to improve the technology to increase the capacity of supply. Also, Venezuela National Statistic Institute believe that in2050the population will have an average age over38,5years old; but, according to Jiangxi Statistical Bureau in Jiangxi Province most of people have over40years old nowadays, especially in rural areas. Having people around this age, it will important maintain good capacity of food supply.The Forecasting of orange consumption in Jiangxi Province and Venezuela using times series and ARIMA methodology showed better results, there were results more closed to the real situation; of course, we used only one dependent variable for the study, but anyway the linear tendency reflect that in the near future will not hope big changes in the demand.Venezuela and Jiangxi Province are located very far whether both can think about the opportunity to develop trade relationship. However, Venezuela and China are having good moment in the cooperation; it will be good to search opportunities to develop good technology. In this sense, under the frame of the mechanism of exchange and consultation between both countries could establish a lot of project to develop agricultural products and by-products of citrus that main focus should be in rural develop. The exchange of scientific knowledge and technology should be part of the process of develop the projects.