| According to statistics from China Automobile Industry Association, in 2014 China’s automobile production and sales were 23.72 million and 23.49 million, respectively, with an year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 6.9%, ranking first for the sixth consecutive year in the world; meanwhile key enterprises (groups) in the national automobile industry achieved a total of 692.8 billion yuan of industrial added value, with an increase of 14.26%. However, a series of deep-seated problems still need to be resolved, such as how to determine the coupling status of automobile supply chains, how to grasp the evolution law of automobile industry cluster, and how to judge the evolution state of automobile industrial cluster, etc. In this regard, the domestic and foreign scholars have conducted research and explorations from different perspectives, but foreign scholars’ conclusions are mostly derived from mature analysis on industrial clusters, which differ from the realistic conditions in China; domestic scholars tend to make empirical research on specific automobile industry cluster, with results of low popularity.Based on this situation, this paper deeply studied the coupling mechanism of the automobile supply chain and the evolution process of automobile industry cluster with methods of coupling theory, game theory and operational research, and mainly discussed the coupling mechanism among enterprises of the same automobile supply chain as well as among different supply chains, and carried out numerical simulation analysis. Then, the paper constructed a number growth model of enterprises in auto industrial cluster, a growth model of automobile production capacity and an evolution model of auto industry cluster on the basis of the coupling theory of automotive supply chain, and studied the evolution path and stages of the automobile industry cluster, and analyzed the features of logistics demand and the corresponding automobile logistics mode with the different evolution stages of the automobile supply chain coupling. Finally, on the basis of automobile industry development situation investigation of Chengdu Economic and Technological Development Zone, the paper analyzed the evolution state of automobile industry cluster and the matching of automobile logistics modes, and suggested that the government optimize policies for the industry cluster to encourage the horizontal and vertical coupling of automobile supply chain, to improve the resource utilization of the automobile industry cluster and adapt to the evolution of automobile industry cluster.This paper first applied coupling theory, with the demand function known, to study the coupling of automotive supply chain and the evolution of auto industrial cluster, and with the conclusions analyzed the status and trends of auto industrial cluster evolution. That is of great significance to construct a research system of automotive supply chain and automobile industry cluster, and to perfect theoretical approaches to the study of automotive supply chain and automobile industrial cluster, and to guide the formation of automobile industrial policies in China. However, due to the relative underdevelopment of China’s automobile industry, there still exist many issues to deepen and perfect, such as the automobile supply chain coupling problem based on stochastic demand, the evaluation system of automobile industry cluster evolution, the empirical analysis of automobile industry cluster in different evolution stages, and so on. Hope that through extensive study and communication, we can deepen the theoretical research, improve the empirical analysis, and provide decision-making suggestions and theoretical guidance for the rapid and healthy development of automotive industry cluster. |
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