| Shandong province is a traditional agricultural province in China. It’s agricultural output, exports of agricultural products occupy a pivotal position in the national agricultural economy, but also an important guarantee of food security for China. Since the reform and opening in China, the agricultural economy of Shandong province has grew rapidly. Besides the influence of various productive factors, the important effect of agricultural technology progress on economic development also cannot be ignored.Science and technology is the first productive force, and it’s the impulsion of promoting agricultural modernization. Measuring the size and trend of contribution rate of agricultural technological progress on economic growth can reflect the potential problems in the country or region’s agricultural development strategy. This contributes to grasp a country or region from the overall level of agricultural technology and development potential. At the same time, this has an important reference value for government to make national agricultural policy and adjust the resources of agricultural science and technology, thereby to promote stable and sustainable development of agricultural economy.On the basis of relevant theories, the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Solow growth rate equation model are selected to respectively calculate and analyze the agricultural technical progress of Shandong province and various counties. This study adopts the method of combining qualitative research and quantitative analysis, and makes further research of the growth rate of various input and output elements, the rate of technological progress and the corresponding contribution rate in different periods. On the basis, some policy recommendations are given to promote the agricultural technological progress in Shandong province. Main content and research conclusion include the following aspects:First, since 1990, the agricultural output is growing rapidly in Shandong province,and the growth rate of animal husbandry is higher than others. The agricultural output and the growth rate in different counties have bigger difference. The growth speed of agricultural output in Dongying city is faster, and the speed of growth in Jinan is relatively slow. In addition, the inputs and the growth speed of production factors in 17 counties also are not the same.Second, the paper selects the agricultural economic data in Shandong province from1990 to 2014, using Eviews8.0 software to build multivariate linear regression equation,and every coefficient can go through the corresponding inspection. Finally in sample period, the capital elasticity coefficient of Shandong province is 0.40, the elasticity coefficient of labor β = 1-0.40-0.31=0.29, and the land output elasticity is 0.31. The contribution rate of technology progress in "eight-year" to "twelve-year" periods is rising volatility. During 25 years, the average annual contribution rate of agricultural technology progress is 56.87% and the average contribution of capital is 48.00%. The contribution rate of land is only 0.32%, and the different is that the average rate of labor is-5.19%. Therefore the technological progress has become the first factor to drive economic growth of Shandong province.Third, we measure and compare the contribution rate of agricultural technological progress of all counties in Shandong province between 2000 to 2012. Results show that the overall level is higher, and on average, the contribution rate of technological progress is 55.88. It’s near the overall contribution rate of Shandong province in 1990 to 2014.However, the range of agricultural technology level is not balanced and the gap is bigger.The contribution rate of technology progress which rank first is more than 20 percent higher than that of the last city(Liaocheng). It also suggests that the agricultural technology level of various counties has a lot of space to improve.In terms of comprehensive, agricultural economy has gradually turned to rely on the intensive development model of technological progress in shandong province. To keepcontinuous and stable development of agricultural economy, combining with the research conclusion, policy suggestions are as follows: First, improve the quality of rural laborers and carry out various forms of farmer education and training activities. Second, local governments should increase investment in agricultural scientific research, and at the same time, they should give corresponding preferential policies to support industrial development of the agriculture leading enterprises. Third, establish and improve the popularization system of agricultural technology and improve the horizontal mechanism of government departments. The agriculture extending stations and professional technical personnel should play the important role. Four, transform the pattern of economic development, and intensify the protection of cultivated land resource. Five, take different policies to coordinate the economic development of various counties. Besides, in economically backward areas, the government should give preferential policy and increase the input of agricultural research. Improve the infrastructure in rural areas and thereby increase the efficiency of agricultural production constantly. |
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