| Ecological footprint and ecological deficit were calculated and analyzed by the method of EF in different time scales and different spatial scales of Pingjiang County from 2004 to 2013.The ecological footprint and ecological deficit in Pingjiang County from 2015 to 2020 were predicted by use the regression analysis and forecasting model.The conclusionswere as follows:1,Analysis of different temporal and spatial scales of ecological footprint and its characteristics:(1)The per capita ecological footprint of Pingjiang county increased about 29.9% from 1.75706926hm2in 2004 to 2.28272690 hm2in 2013.Biological resources consumption ecological footprint was the largest proportion of the whole ecological footprint in Pingjiang county and per capita biological resources consumption ecological footprint accounted for 88%,per capita energy consumption ecological footprint accounted for 6% of the whole ecological footprint in Pingjiang county, per capita pollutants consumption ecological footprint accounted for 5%,per capita water consumption ecological footprint accounted for 1%.The per capita ecological capacity decreased about from 0.655001023hm2 in 2004 to 0.630885172hm2 in 2013;the per capita ecological deficit increased from 1.102068237hm2in 2004 to 1.651841728hm2in 2013;the ecological footprint of per ten thousand yuan GDP reduced from 3.774801729hm2/ten thousand yuan in 2004 to 1.359010084hm2/million in 2013. (2)The space distribution characteristics of ecological footprint in Pingjiang was expectives:Ecological footprint in central region of Pingjiang county is more than the ecological footprint in western region andmore than the ecological footprint in eastern region;the per capita ecological footprint in the central region of Pingjiang countywas 2.21989784 hm2, the per capita ecological footprint was 1.66100332hm2 in the west region of Pingjiang county, the per capita ecological footprint was 0.76651735hm2 in the eastern region of Pingjiang county.The ecological surplus was 0.424407153 hm2in the eastern region of Pingjiang county in recent ten years;The ecological deficit was 1.898902764 hm2in the central region of Pingjiang County; The ecological deficit was 0.977861718hm2in the western region of Pingjiang County.The space distribution characteristics of ecological footprint of per ten thousand yuan GDP was higher in the central region than in the west region and than in the east region of Pingjiang county.2,The touristic ecological footprint temporal variation characteristics:(1)Per capita touristic ecological footprint increased from 0.058686461hm2in 2004 to 0.070294065hm2in 2O13.The touristic transport ecological footprint accounted for 73%;the touristic food catering ecological footprint accounted for 20%; touristic ecological footprint of solid waste accounted for 3%;the touristic ecological footprint of visiting accounted for 1.8%; the touristic ecological footprint of accommodation accounted for l%;the touristic ecological footprint of entertainment accounted for 0.7%; the touristic ecological footprint of shopping accounted for 0.5%.(2)The touristic revenue’s ecological footprint of Pingjiang increased from 0.850953685hm2/million in 2004 to 1.082917324hm2/million in 2013.3,Regression analysis and forecasting results showed the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological deficit in Pingjiang will continue to rise, until 2020, per capita ecological footprint will reach 3.21160hm2, per capita ecological deficit will reach 2.82720hm2. According to this research, the suggestion of optimizing the industrial structure, developing eco-tourism, reducing the consumption of local biological resources and controlling environmental pollution, strengthening ecological construction had been put forward to achieve sustainable development. |