The Estimation Of Potential Rural Labor Scales Of China In The Perspective Of The Going-out Behaviors

This paper selects the research data conducted by Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy in 2014 on representative provinces of China. By using Probit probability prediction model, we do empirical studies of what influence the probability of China’s rural labor to work out of their countryside, and do further discussion about the size and the nature of the potential migrant workers in China, in order to judge whether our country has crossed the Lewis turning point.The study finds that women of rural labors have a higher probability of working out of their countryside than men; At the same time, the village migrant rate in 2007 and 2013 are both highly significant and have a positive role in promoting the probability of working out of the countryside; Age influences are obviously different. In 2007, the older are the rural labors, the higher is the probability of working out; But we find that age influences have negative effect in 2013.In order to further study age influences on the village migrant workers, this paper also divides ages into groups. The results show that in 2007, with the growth of age, the village migrant worker rate has a more and more important effect on the increase of the probability of working out.Meanwhile, in 2013, we find educational level starts to effect the village people aged of 15-30 in a positive way. It shows that in the past few years, the probability of migrant workers mainly improve through the network communication of migrant workers, but now, if we improved the education level of young people, the probability of their working out would be improved.On the other hand, after predicting the outcome of the Probit Model, I also catch the scale and the nature of the potential migrant workers in 2007 and 2013. The results show that the predicted scale of the potential migrant workers is not reduced, but on the contrary expanded by about 2.5 times. However, age has a great influence for migrant workers on the decision of whether working out, so this paper separately divide village people into two groups of the young and the old, the boundary of which are 35 and 40. The results show that, the disparity of potential migrant worker numbers in 2007 and 2013 can be significantly reduced. The reason may be that serious ageing phenomenon exists in potential migrants, and the expectations of rural young labors to work out become insufficient. If we set the boundary 35, then the number of potential migrants of 2007 is about 34 million, and 2013 is about 36 million, which is slightly more than that in 2007; if we set the boundary 40, then the number of potential migrants of 2007 is about 40 million, and 2013 is about 47 million.In general, the number of potential migrant workers in China has not been reduced after taking the impact of age into account. As a result, there is no evidence that our country has crossed Lewis turning point. At least, potential migrant scale has not reduced remarkably based on the sample of this paper.