| Labor is the important element of the development of China's special economic structure,large amount and low-cost labor can create product advantage and eventually shape competitive power.However,with the development of economy and the deepening of opening to the outside world,the relative position of agriculture and manufacturing changing.Although labor population declined because of aging population,the overall change rate is not high,therefore the main reason of the shortages of rural migrant workers and other labor is the migration of labor between primary industry and second and third industry.With labor transferring between different industries,on one hand,the number of transferable surplus rural labor fell sharply;on the other hand,the labor wage costs reversibly rise.The change of labor factor of our country economy is described in this article with Lewis turning point.The emergence of the Lewis turning point is the result of industrial development,with the appearance of the Lewis turning point,the formation mechanism of inflation and deflation has to be adjusted,this article explores the effects on inflation or deflation of Lewis turning point from the perspective of supply and demand.From the perspective of supply,Lewis turning point leads to cost-push inflation;and from demand,it leads to effective demand-insufficient deflation.The economic impact of inflation and deflation is different,we need take different available monetary policy to deal with them.In this paper,the discussion of the effect on inflation or deflation of Lewis turning point is the main line.This article divides research content into six parts to discuss respectively.The first part is the introduction,this part is not only about the Lewis turning point effect under the background of shortage of migrant workers and limited transfer of rural surplus labor in China,but also analyzes the related literature to know the research trend,draws lessons from the research methods,finds out weakness of the former research and put forwards innovation.The second part is theoretical research,mainly stating the relationship between Lewis turnin'g point and inflation or deflation on the theoretical level,elaborating the interpretation between the Lewis turning point and inflation or deflation resort logical deduction in theory.Theoretical research of this paper explores whether Lewis turning point raising or lowering prices from the perspective of total supply and total demand,that is to say that it can cause inflation in terms of supply,deflation in the demand side.On one hand,Lewis turning point comes with the decrease in the number of labor and the irreversible increase in wages,eventually raise price and lead to cost-push inflation;on the other hand,the increase in wages will also rise the investment cost of enterprise and reduce profit margins,therefore its investment income and return on capital will decline,however,the decrease in capital marginal rate usually comes with the increase in real interest rates which can accelerate the reduction in investment,eventually reduce enterprise's income and investment will resort the investment multiplier,thus obviously the Lewis turning point brings the deficiency in effective demand and deflation.The third part utilizes time series data from 1987 to 2015,mainly the descriptive statistics,this part sorts out and analyzes such data as consumption,investment,net export,real-wages and price level to elaborate the variation trend and relationship of them.The fourth part shows how to shape Smooth Transition Regression,and uses PP method to check the stability of the real wage growth rate,inflation,consumption,investment and net export to prepare for the next part.The fifth part is the empirical analysis,firstly confirm the linear and nonlinear part of this model,and then will use nonlinear NLS estimation to confirm specific form of this model to describe the nonlinear relationship between inflation and income and effective demand.The sixth part shows the research conclusion and proposes policy suggestions.Lewis turning point can raise up cost-push inflation on the supply side and cause higher effective demand deficit deflation on the demand side.After analyzing the effective policy for inflation that adopted by central bank who is in intricate situation,this paper will put forward innovative suggestion which is valuable on the basis of monetary theory and policy and the research conclusion according to the specific effect of Lewis turning point.The arrival of Lewis turning point force our country to meet challenges,therefore,studying the influence of various factors change around the Lewis turning point from the perspective of the supply and demand is the intrinsic for stable economy.This paper encounters a mainly difficulty,that is,lack of data,for few data isn't published in the past and the quarterly data is deficient neither,so the defects may affect the accuracy of the conclusion. |
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