Early-warning Of Financial Crisis In China’s Real Estate Company

Issues related to real estate in China has maintained this high heat, researches on the real estate industry has been going on. People’s real estate financial operations and financial risks can face growing concern. Reflected in real-life situations is one aspect of many real estate companies into reducing the sales price of real estate to the promotion of the building, and most of their cash flow is negative. On the other hand, since 2009 to stop the decline in housing prices and have the potential to rise. From this perspective, the establishment of financial risk early warning model for real estate, effective for the company’s future financial risks that may occur effectively predict, not only have a good theoretical value but also has some practical significance.2015, the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing stressed that "the capacity to destocking, de-leveraging." In China, the real estate industry, there is a huge amount of inventory, the problem of high leverage, to inventory deleveraging has become the real estate industry and the country’s economic development key issues. State policy has guided the development direction of China’s real estate business, in this case, the real estate enterprises should strengthen the financial risk early warning of the real estate industry, warning of increased financial risk, which for the development of real estate industry and associated industries the development of great significance. Our previous studies on financial risks mainly related to the industry, but in different sectors of the business philosophy, management is personal, so the financial risk analysis methods and standards relating to the company and so are not the same. Few country against financial risks in an industry specific analysis of the city, and our financial risks affected by multiple factors, larger warning and control difficult. In the background of many of the financial risk of listed real estate companies were warning analysis is imperative.This paper describes the methods and data selection and other issues in this article, a summary of the literature review of the research in the field of research on the current situation in the field to understand, and to clarify its analysis in the field of innovation.Then, the theory model of listed real estate company’s financial risks were analyzed, and elaborated the theoretical basis of the real estate industry, the financial risk research. Theoretical basis include: crisis management theory, strategic management theory, shock, stress enterprise management theory, enterprise diagnosis theory; and on the financial risk early warning model for analysis, including linear discriminant model-Z fraction model and Logistic model, factor analysis method Analysis. Then based on the above analysis, the basic characteristics of the real estate financial risks were analyzed and found to have periodic financial risk, integrated and relevance, subject to government policies, slow capital turnover, balance relatively higher characteristic; then to our listed the need for real estate companies and financial risk early warning of the reality of the analysis found that China’s real estate enterprises in the government’s policy on the real estate company changes, the property tax levy, construction of affordable housing, their own management level, requirements related industries in reality Therefore China’s real estate companies need to strengthen early warning of financial risk.Furthermore, the characteristics of listed real estate company’s financial risks were analyzed and found that China’s real estate financial risks mainly in five aspects: First, the debt ratio rises, second, reduced profitability, and the third, the ability to reduce operating, the first Fourth, the ability to reduce cash management, fifth, and other related business failures. Then the reasons for the real estate industry, the financial risk of the formation of the analysis found that the risk caused by major categories divided into: systemic risk and non-systematic risk.The fifth chapter is mainly on financial risk early warning model of listed real estate companies empirical analysis. In this first part of the theoretical assumptions, then the sample and filter the data, analyze the results and empirical results.Finally, according to the above analysis, analysis of the external macro-economic policies for China’s listed real estate company’s financial risks.