| Over the decades, tourism has experienced continued growth and deepening diversification to become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Modern tourism is closely linked to development and encompasses growing number of new destinations. These dynamics have turned tourism into a key driver for socio-economic progress.Today, the business volume of tourism equals or even surpasses that of oil exports, food products or automobiles. Tourism has become one of the major players in international commerce, and represents at the same time one of the main income sources for many developing countries. This growth goes hand in hand with a increasing diversification and competition among destinations.International tourism arrivals have increased from 25 million globally in 1950 to 1133 millions in 2014. Likewise, international tourism receipts earned by destinations worldwide have surged from US$ 2 billion in 1950 to US$ 1245 billion in 2014.For many countries tourism is a vital source of foreign currency earnings and an important contributor to the economy, creating much needed employment and opportunities for development.Europe has been holding a leading position in the global tourism market since tourism became a relevant economic activity, generating over half of the world’s international arrivalsTourism does not play a primary role in the economy of Belarus:there is less than 1% income from tourism in the GDP of the country, and about 10% in the total turnover of trade in services. In many developed countries the same figures make 7 and 25%, respectively. Despite the tourist potential, favorable geopolitical position, rich cultural and natural heritage, the country occupies a very low position in the global tourism market, and significantly falls behind the neighboring countries.This study is focused on the international tourism by purpose of visit, specifically on leisure and business tourism, as these two subtypes of international tourism together occupy the biggest part of the whole share of international tourism by purpose of visit.The main objective of this work is to use a mathematical model of ABC-XYZ-analysis to study the economic component of the international tourism in Europe to detect the regularity of development of international tourism over the period 2009-2013. Distribution of countries by groups:by the level of arrivals and by the level of regularity of tourists spending.On the basis of the ABC-XYZ-analysis, we try to show that it is not always possible to draw a direct correlation between the amount of international visits and the amount of income derived from tourism.The results of ABC-analysis, XYZ-analysis, and combined ABC-XYZ-analysis let us to distribute all European countries by groups (AX, AY, AZ, BX, BY, BZ, CX, CY, CZ). And we will see the position of the Republic of Belarus in these groups. According to the results of ABC-XYZ-analysis, we can compare the Republic of Belarus with a county from another group, and identification of the tendency in the development of international tourism in the Republic of Belarus.The fixed effect model allows figuring out which factors (direct contribution to employment, direct contribution to GDP, exchange rate, GDP and GDP per capita, internal T&T consumption, investment, numbers of arrivals, visitors exports) have the greatest influence on number of arrivals in European countries and on international tourist spending in European countries.One more important aim of this study is to determinate the place of the Republic of Belarus in this arranging, compare the Republic of Belarus with a developed country, and identification of the tendency in the development of international tourism in the Republic of Belarus. |
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