Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Real Estate Investment And Economic Growth Of Tianjin

Since reform and opening, the real estate industry in Tianjin is developing rapidly along with the housing reform and land using system reform deepening. The development of real estate market is closely linked with the economic growth, the urbanization construction, and the people’s life. The real estate market plays a decisive role in the national economy, and what’s more the real estate investment is the most important part of real estate market.Thus clearing the relationship between real estate investments and macro-economic of Tianjin is particularly important. It can lay the foundations for the effective policy that guiding the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.Based on related theories and research achievements about the investment and economic growth at home and abroad, this paper combine with the latest statistics, analyzing the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth of Tianjin from two aspects of investment amount and investment structure comprehensively. First of all, using co-integration test, VAR model of linear measurement model analysis total real estate investment and economic growth relationship. The results show that in a long-term the real estate investment has strong influence on economic growth and the contribution rate is high. But in the short term crowding out effect show stronger. Then the next part analyzes the relationship between investment structure and economic growth with combining the linear and nonlinear threshold regression econometric model, drawing the following conclusion. First, regional investment structure of Tianjin city has threshold effect, when investment exceeds a certain threshold, investment on economic promotion effectiveness will decrease rapidly; second, residential investment of Tianjin has highest contribution to economic development, followed by commercial real estate which has become a new bright spot; third, the source of the investment funds is single and it strongly dependent on bank loans. Finally based on the previous empirical analysis, the paper proposes targeted policy recommendations.