The Application Of Grey Model GM(1,2) In The Prediction Of Stock Price

Investors are particularly concerned about the future stock price fluctuation for it directly related to the interests of stock investors. There has been a lot of stock price theories which described and analysed the fluctuation of stock price qualitatively currently.In this paper,we start with the historical data of stock price,use the grey system theories and methods,establish the GM(1,2) model to predict the stock price in the future,provide a reference method of quantitative analysis for investment decision.In this paper, we regard the stock’s closing price as the main object of prediction, regard the stock’s maximum price as the influence factors which influence the prediction results of the closing price. It improved the precision of prediction of stock price.After getting the model parameter estimation value,we transform the model to solve the problem of which partial actual data do not meet the computational requirements of the model.It expanded the scope of application of the model.We use the example analysis to elaborate the prediction process of the model.In the numerical calculation on the influence factor,we present two methods and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods.At the same time we proved that the model is appropriate to predict the stock price through the example.The first chapter introduces the research motivation and background.The second chapter lists the basic principles of grey system and methods needed,also explains the present situation of the research of grey system.The third chapter gives a specific theory of GM(1,2) model.The fifth part has carried on the summary to this article...