Research On The Calculation Of Hidden Debts Of Pensions In My Country Under The Background Of Population Aging

With our living condition improving,the average life span becomes longer recently and the population aging problem has occurred in our country.Simultaneously,China reformed its social pension system from the pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system.The conversion cost left over from the old system formed a implicit debt problem and affected the sustainability of our pension system development,which must be properly resolved.In 2015,the government allowed the pension fund to invest in the capital market.Improving the investment rate of return under the premise of ensuring the safety of funds is the core issue in the investment and operation process.Correctly calculating the implicit debt scale of the pension is an important part of setting the target of the rate of return.The purpose of this paper is to measure the scale of implicit pension debt with the fact of population ageing in China and examine its pressure on the China's fiscal expenditure and the impact on China's basic pension insurance system.According to the result of the research above,then some proposals would be put forward to solve the implicit pension debt problem.First of all,in order to accurately measure the scale of pension implicit debt,this paper analyzes the concept of implicit pension debt and the factors that affect the scale of debt,and analyzes the ingredients of China's implicit pension debt according to China's relevant laws and regulations.Considering that implicit pension debt is a part of the pension fund expenditure,the article introduces the current situation and characteristics of the population-aging phenomenon in China.Because the fund balance is closely related to the solution of the implicit debt problem,so a preliminary analysis of the basic pension insurance fund current situation of income and expenditure is conducted and the existing problems of the current old-age insurance system are described.Then the insured employees involved in the implicit debt are classified into three categories: ‘elderly group',‘middle retiree group' and ‘middle in-service group'.The actuarial model of the debt scale is established by referring to relevant laws and data.Finally,the specific values of the parameters are given to obtain the total scale of implicit pension debt from 2007 to 2016.The life insurance mortality table data is used to predict the population age structure change of the insured employees and the implicit pension liabilities in the future.Through the research of this article,the aging of the population affects both pension fund income and expenditure,making it more difficult to solve the implicit pension debt problem.The scale of pension implicit debt is affected by pension substitution rate,retirement age,inflation and other factors.During the period of 2007-2016,the total debt scale decreased and the amount of implicit debt that the government needs to honor each year kept rising,which is also true in the further according the forecast.This study believes that the aging of the population affects both pension fund income and expenditure,making it more difficult to solve the implicit pension debt problem.The scale of pension implicit debt is affected by factors such as the pension replacement rate,annual adjustment rate,retirement age,and interest rate.The total debt scale will decrease in the coming years,and the amount of implicit debt that the government needs to honor will increase first and then decline.According to the actuarial model,this paper finally discusses the effectiveness of the relevant pension policy,and puts forward some policy recommendations accordingly.