| Affected by traditional consumption habit, pork makes up a large proportion, about 66 percentages in Chinese households’ meat consumption structure. Therefore, pork is a kind food of great significance, and pig industry is attached great importance since ancient time. However, due to both natural and human factors, pig price becomes increasingly intense and fluctuated. As a result, cyclical price fluctuation leads to cyclical production fluctuation and cyclical profit fluctuation. The fluctuations have a terrible and negative influence on social life. Pig price regulating and controling expectation has a significant role in the process of pig price stabilization. Setting down a rational and correct pig price expectation can help avoid the terrible ups and downs in pig production, stabilize the balanced supplement of pig market, and ensure the continuous development of pig industry.Through the statistic data of Sichuan pig price and distribution of national pig production counties, this paper analyzes the macro situation of pig industry in Sichuan Province. And through the first-hand data collecting form pig farmers in Sichuan Province, this paper analyzes the micro situation of pig farmers’behavior characteristics. This paper applies Expectation Theory and Behavioral Economic Theory into the analysis of Sichuan pig producers. Then, build Rational Expectation Model of scale pig farm, Adaptive Expectation Model of scattered farmer, and Quasi-rational Expectation Model of specialized farmer. Select three different pig supply regulation coefficient θ, and simulate the price expectation from 2014 to 2020. Given the particularity of pig price, the article applied grey system theory, based on the weakening buffer operator and set up GM (1,1) prediction model, then used four kinds of error checking methods to test the reasonability and the prediction accuracy and predict the following three year pig price.Based on the above work, this paper concludes the following points. The swine industry of (1) Sichuan Province is booming, and the number of national pig production counties is increasing. (2) Scale production will be the main mode in Sichuan swine industry in the future. (3) Rational expectation of scale factory is more sensitive to policy information than that of scattered farmers and scale farmers. (4) Grey System Theory GM (1,1) has a high prediction precision, and is suitable for pig price prediction. The pig price of 2014, 2015, and 2016 are 16.72 Yuan/kg,15.26 Yuan/kg and 17.42 Yuan/kg respectively. Pig price will increase among the fluctuation in the future.This paper proposes three recommendations:firstly, establish and perfect pig futures market, which can provide right guidance towards pig producers. Secondly, establish early warning system of pig price, and improve the capacity of market risk prevention. Thirdly, pay attention to the continuity and consistency of swine industry policy, build confidence of pig production. |
PDF Full Text Request