| The United States has implemented the first round of quantitative easing monetary policy since 2008, and the quantitative easing monetary policy ended in October 2014, the time span last for up to six years, which have not only caused profound influence on the global economy, but also influenced the trend and scale of international capital. As the second largest economy and the largest creditor of American, and closed with the United States economy, our country is inevitably suffering shock.We choose the sample interval from January 2006 to December 2014, and divided it into three different time periods, before the implementation of QE, QE during implementation of QE and exiting of QE, by constructing the SVAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to study the impact of the whole process of the quantitative easing monetary policy from implementation to finish to the cross-border capital flows of our country. We select money supply as QE directly manipulate variable, and the spread, the RMB exchange rate and commodity prices as the indirect explained variable for empirical analysis.The results show that Before the implementation of QE, exchange rate channel, commodity prices channel and increasing the money supply have a short-term effect on China’s cross-border capital flows, and long-term effect is not obvious; during the implementation of QE, the impact of interest rate channel is the most dramatic and rapid, and last time is the longest, is a continuous positive influence; The impacts of exchange rate channels and commodity prices are also very obvious, the influence of the money supply is relatively weak; from exiting to the end of QE, the three channels and the money supply still has an impact on China’s cross-border capital flows, but the interest rate channel and the price channel have a reaction compared with the time during the implementation, and the effect of money supply and exchange rate channel is more slow and weak. Therefore, China needs to accelerate the interest rate marketization process, promote the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism, local currency settlement and RMB internationalization, promote market-oriented reform, financial liberalization to stabilize prices, at the same time we should also strengthen monitoring and management of cross-border capital flows, adjust the industrial structure, transfer the mode of economic growth, to promote the healthy and long-term development of our country’s economy. |
