| In recent years, shadow banking which develops very quickly has become an important part in Chinese financial system. Shadow banking is attached to the commercial banks, but it lies beyond the control of regulators. The stability of banking system has been affected by shadow banking’s development. On the one hand, shadow banking increases the profitability of commercial banks by changing the mode of operation. On the other hand, shadow banking has weakened the function of the traditional banks’credit intermediation, and the regulatory loopholes also threaten the stability of the banking system. Therefore, this paper will analyze the influence of the shadow banking’s scale on the stability of banking system from the empirical view.This paper expounds the background of the study and the significance of the topic, and reviews the relevant domestic and foreign literature on the shadow banking and commercial banks’stability. On the basis of introducing the rise, constitution and risk of shadow banking in China, the paper calculates the scale of shadow banking with the standard of whether or not related to commercial banks’ operating activities. The scale of internal shadow banking includes bank acceptance bills of exchange, silver letters cooperation and entrusted loans, and the external shadow banking mainly measure the scale of the non-institutional financing. Then, the paper introduces the synthesis method of the commercial banks’stability index and quantifies the 30 representative commercial banks’stability in 2006-2014. After analyzing the positive and negative effects of the shadow banking on the commercial banks, the paper establishes the VAR model and panel regression model to analyze the shadow banking’s effect on commercial banks’stability in the empirical way.The main conclusions of this paper are:the scale of China’s shadow banking has expanded rapidly since 2008, and the growth trend has gradually increased after a slight decline in 2011, the scale has exceeded 12 trillion by the end of 2014.The stability of the 30 representative commercial banks has increased from 2006 to 2014, and the stability of rural commercial banks is lower than that of listed banks and urban commercial banks. In the study of the relationship between the variables, the scale of the shadow banking, the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of M2 are the reasons for the changes of the commercial banks’stability. The negative influence of the shadow banking’s growth on the stability of commercial banks has the existence of time delay. Panel regression analysis of 30 representative commercial banks’stability shows that the scale of the shadow banking increased by one percentage point, the current commercial banks’stability will improve the level of 0.09 percentage points, while the growth of GDP and money supply will also promote the stability of commercial banks. In addition, the positive effect of the shadow banking on the GDP growth rate is persistent, which reflects the contribution of shadow banking to the development of the national economy.According to the above conclusions, this paper argues that an appropriate growth of shadow banking is helpful to improve the stability of commercial banks in China. Despite the rapid development of shadow banking brings risks, regulatory authorities can make full use of the time delay of the risks to control the negative effect of shadow banking, and promote development of the national economy in a healthy and sustainable way on the basis of maintaining the stability of commercial banks. |
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