Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Stability Of Commercial Banks In China

In recent years, with the deepening of the financial markets liberalization degree, the innovation of the financial products, the expanding of the shadow banking. To a certain extent, the development of shadow banking has been active in the financial market, which has promoted the development of economy. Although it exists the features of high leverage, maturity mismatch and lack of supervision which hidden a huge security risks, the financial crisis breakout in 2007 is an example. The shadow banking as the shadow of the traditional bank must has an inextricably relationship with traditional commercial banks. Especially in recent years, the financial innovation products that deepen the intersection of the commercial banks and shadow banks intersection, which brings the power for the innovation of the commercial banks. At the same time, it introduced the possibility of commercial banks to the external risks and brought certain adverse effect to the traditional commercial bank stability. Therefore, it is quiet necessary to deeply study the relationship between the stability of commercial banks and the shadow banking.Firstly, based on the domestic and foreign research and combined with the actual situation of our country, this paper expounds the definition and features of the shadow banking system, root development, as well as the difference between China’s shadow banking and the developed countries. Furthermore, this paper makes a more comprehensive definition of the scope of the shadow banking, and analyzes and calculates the development status of each type of the shadow banking institutions. Secondly, this paper expounds the theory of the stability of commercial banks, selects four aspects including safety, liquidity, market risk and profitability combined ten regulatory indicator. and uses the principal component method to calculate the stability of commercial banks index value. Finally, theoretical analyze the positive and negative impact of the shadow banking to commercial bank stability mechanism, then make an empirical analysis, apply the SVAR model to the study of the influence of shadow banking on the stability of commercial banks for the first time, By the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition empirical analyzes the influence of shadow banking to commercial bank stability. At the same time, it analyzes the relationship between the stability of commercial banks, the development level of shadow banking and the economic, regulatory policy and monetary policy.The result shows that the development of the shadow banking in china, in a certain period of time, has a positive effect on the stability of commercial banks, but its drawback will be shown in the second quarter of next year. The development of shadow banking and the level of economic development promote each other. Meanwhile, the conclu sion also shows that excessive deregulation will reduce the long-term stability of commercial banks. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions: there should be a dialectical view on shadow banking problems, treat the pros and cons of the development of shadow banking to the traditional commercial banks and economic development correctly, allow for the moderate development of shadow banking, and some measures must be taken in to guarantee the healthy and stable development of the shadow banking, and some positive guidance should be made to promote the development of commercial banks and economic level. At the same time, the regulatory agencies should improve the current regulatory policy reasonably, pay attention to the operation mechanism of commercial banks, improve the traditional commercial banking system security network to strengthen the stability of commercial banks.