Research On Financial Crisis Prediction Model Of The State-owned Listed Companies

Financial crisis is one of the main reasons leads enterprises to competitive disadvantage, this disadvantage and sometimes even lead to companies facing bankruptcy and liquidation situation. Typically, before the outbreak of the financial crisis, there will be some obvious signs, there is a gradual deterioration of the financial situation from a health procedure. When the financial situation began to question, if not take timely measures, it will accelerate the deterioration or even bankruptcy. Therefore, in order to identify a harbinger of financial deterioration, and the use of effective prevention measures corresponding to avoid causing too much damage, the enterprise should as soon as possible to establish an effective financial crisis early warning mechanism in crisis intervention.Between SOEs and non-SOEs very different, in the international market, state-owned enterprises often as the main representatives of the domestic enterprises to compete in international markets; in the country, state-owned enterprises not only to support the national economic development, but also to protect and improve shoulder people’s livelihood, to achieve a major task of increasing the value of state-owned capital, bear more social responsibility. Until late last year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares,987 state-owned enterprises, accounting for a large proportion of the total of 2,842 listed companies. As the number of investors in the securities market growing, social influence gradually expanded, the stock market has been widespread outbreaks involving changes to the general public, the crisis of people’s livelihood and the overall economy will have a huge negative impact. At the same time, China’s most basic telecommunications and value-added services provided by state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises once the crisis will bring a wide range of significant impact. However, the current domestic research on state-owned enterprise’s financial crisis early warning awareness and early warning systems are still not enough. Therefore, this article will state-owned enterprises, the important business relating to people’s livelihood and national economic security as the research object, research and analysis of financial crisis early warning mechanism.This thesis is divided into five parts:The first part is introduction, the financial crisis early warning; introduction section includes innovation related research background, meaning and purpose, and this article. The second part, warning research of financial crisis theory; Theoretical study defined portion includes an overview of the financial crisis, Model literature review and analysis of the characteristics of state-owned listed companies in three sections. Which start with a literature review of foreign and domestic point of view and are elaborated further literature review; this article because state-owned listed companies in the A-share market as the research object, focuses on the characteristics of state-owned listed companies and the emergence of the financial crisis. The third part, the financial crisis warning model research design; and indicators This section includes a sample selection. First, the sample companies determine the financial crisis, and in accordance with 1:non-financial crisis business matching, composition model sample 1 pairing rules; secondly, based on preliminary indicators selected comprehensiveness, importance, principles of previous experience; Finally, the mean difference test, correlation test, multicollinearity test for screening indicator to determine the final index. The fourth part, construct and test the financial crisis warning model, model building part is the use of selected indicators to establish the final multivariate Logistic model; test section refers to the use of the test sample group choose to test the model. The fifth part, conclusions and future prospects; draw the appropriate conclusions and recommendations based on section five for deficiencies article. Studies showr that three years before the outbreak of the financial crisis have some data to predict the effect. The closer the enterprise financial distress of age, between crisis and non-crisis business enterprises have abnormalities coefficient, the higher forecast accuracy. Therefore, enterprises have the financial crisis, in fact, it is a gradual process, not by chance. The use of different financial crisis early warning data to build the model year, there are significant differences in the financial indicators are not the same, we can see, the enterprise should take full account of the actual aging issue warning information, and therefore, according to the data of the year of T-2, warning model are established in different years is meaningful. Warning against the use of state-owned enterprises to establish a model of the entire A-share listed companies, the prediction accuracy decreased significantly, indicating that state-owned enterprises are considered separately, the establishment of appropriate early warning model is necessary. Given the research value of financial crisis warning research areas of the economy and the potential effects of huge social function, in Western countries, it has served as an important research topic, it has been great concern; China is now at a critical period of rapid development of market economy, But the financial crisis early warning and did not get enough attention, which is not conducive to the sustained and healthy economic development, therefore, improve early warning systems, to build an effective early-warning method is imminent.