Research On The Reasonable Level Of New Commercial Housing Demand

Housing problem is an important issue related to social harmony and stability. The healthy development of the housing market is the focus of government work. In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy, the housing market in Jiangsu Province has shown a good trend. Especially Nanjing and Suzhou are in the forefront of the rapid development of second-tier cities. Housing investment continues to grow rapidly, housing completion area and sales area annually. The rapid development of the housing market has brought many problems, such as housing prices rose faster cause residents can not afford to purchase a home; Inadequate housing supply in some cities cause residents purchase house by queued through the night and Yaohao; Part of the city housing vacancy rate is higher, resulting in "ghost town" phenomenon. Market this "invisible hand" has no ability to solve the problems, so the government departments regulate the housing market through macroeconomic policy, but the actual effect is minimal regulation. Throughout the control policy of the government, successive governments have to take more strict control, such as price, purchase, raise the second homes down-payment requirements, etc., but not fundamentally solve the problem. The housing market has so many problems, because of the imbalance of housing supply and demand.Housing supply and demand balance is the premise of stable prices and ensureing stable development of the housing market. When government formulates housing supply policies, they must understand reasonable demand for housing. Only fully understanding the reasonable needs of the housing market, we can provide a reasonable supply of housing. Otherwise it will lead to two situations: oversupply, which resulting in a waste of resources to housing, and, short supply, which resulting in residential housing demand can not be met and making the impact on social harmony and stability.The resach of rational level of housing demand in China has been in a blank state. So in this paper, we research on a reasonable level of housing demand, the main research content is as follows:1. We combinate the macroscopic perspective and microcosmic point of view, with a new perspective to study the housing demand. And we innovatilly put forward the concept and mechanism research of a reasonable level of housing demand.2. While on the background of cities of Jiangsu Province and other cities, we classify the cities which have the inconsistent housing markets. We elected relative and absolute indicators related to the housing market, and divided cities into A, B, C class by the method of clustering.3. We have established screening index system of reasonable housing market by four indicators: the price earnings ratio, housing affordability index, degree of market failure, Real estate investment coordination index4. For different types of cities, we use econometric methods to establish reasonable housing needs regression model, then apply this model to the city which does not have a reasonable housing market, and ultimately, analyze the relationship between reasonable housing needs and the actual housing demand of these cities.The research of a reasonable level of housing needs is the supplement and extension of existing housing demand research, which has important theoretical significance and practical significance.