Long-term Calculation Of Basic Pension System Fund For Urban Employees

Basic old-age insurance for urban workers is an important social security system in China, which has a very important significance for the healthy and stable development. However, factors, such as the aging of the population, the reducing number of insurance, created an impact of the pension insurance fund’s financial balance and health development. Through the establishment of the pension insurance fund income and expenditure model, on the basis of scientific and reasonable assumptions, the paper run the scientific forecastion of pension insurance fund’s income and expenditure scale. At the same time, the paper select the three inspection of extreme programs, which are respective, to study the operation of pension funds, this aims to establish the bottom line thinking and crisis awareness.On the basis of the development of the pension insurance fund, this paper distinguishes the relevant concepts of basic pension insurance, and analyzes the financing mode of the pension fund.Secondly, the establishment of the pension insurance fund income model, expenditure model and balance model. At the same time, the model has been involved in many factors of high level, middle level and low level of hypothesis, the paper lists 81 programs, in order to simple, only select the three extreme cases of the program focus.Through the research, it is found that the gap of the income and expenditure of the old age insurance fund is only a matter of time.There are two innovations in this paper:firstly, it focuses on the research of the operation of the pension fund in a certain area. In the national endowment insurance fund has not yet carried out the national co-ordination (some areas even not to achieve the province overall) of the real situation, the specific areas of the pension insurance fund research has certain necessity and urgency, and will help to promote the specific areas of pension funds of financial sustainability. Second, many of the factors are involved in the operation of the pension fund.it is difficult to grasp the essence of the single point of view. Based on the actual situation of Shandong Province, This paper carries out different scenarios, so that the government decision-making departments could introduce the corresponding policies and measures in accordance with the different circumstances, and the measure will be scientific and feasible.