Analysis Of Individual Account Pension System Of Chinese Countryside Society: A Model Of Balance-of-Payments By A Stochastic Method

The pension system of Chinese countryside society is an extremely important part of the social security system. It offers strong protection for building new socialist countryside in China. However, nowadays there are some problems in Chinese countryside old-age insurance system, such as non-uniform system, low level of protection, fund paying issues etc. The old-age insurance in Chinese countryside tends to be fragmentation. These problems are closely related to the current situation of extreme imbalance and differences in regional development in China. In addition, with the improvement of the social security system and a "new socialist countryside" being proposed, throughout the country have been on the insurance system reform, and strive to explore a set of scientific, sustainable, applicable old-age insurance program. Researching for countryside insurance in quantitative domain is becoming a hot spot, but it tends to be lack of estimating the risk to the Fund. In the researching circumstance above, this paper combines the impact of random factors on the funds with the advanced mathematical population techniques, so as to studying the personal account balance problem under Total Accumulation pattern, and providing analysis method for improvement of Chinese countryside social insurance.This paper contains five chapters. Chapter one discusses the research background, outlined the purpose of the paper. Then chapter two assumed and built a random interest rate model, and took advantage of the B-J method to build the interest ARMA model in the entitlement period. Chapter three combined the balance principle of individual account with the former stochastic interest rate model to build an individual account paying model with random factors. Meanwhile, in this chapter, the paper estimates the mean and variance of the claiming coefficient, providing the method to choose payment rate in our countryside insurance system. Chapter four introduced the Lee-Carter model and fitted the model based on the sample data whichi is Chinese countryside mortality data from 1990 to 2005. Based on the random death model, Chapter five predicted the future mortality of our countryside population, and estimated the 60 years and 65 years life expectancy. Finally, Chapter six combined the stochastic interest rate model with the life expectancy model based on random mortality to measure the mean and variance of 60 years and 65 years' claiming coefficient. Providing the reference for improving the new type of rural social old-age insurance system.