| Gold has three properties, commodity, financial and monetary factors, which affect the price of gold, the dramatic changes in the price of gold in our developing countries and the economic development and financial stability of the country’s economic development and financial stability. So this article first introduces the three attributes of gold and gold in the history of monetary and non monetary development, and then to the cause of the change in the price of gold. Through the comparison and analysis of several time periods in the gold price, the main factors that affect the gold price in the current period are determined. Finally come to a few times, the impact of the volatility of gold prices is not static, the nominal effective exchange rate of crude oil prices, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. CPI index, the U.S. fund interest rates, these factors and the current actual international political and economic situation to coordinate with each other, forming one or several factors leading to the price of gold. In this paper, the factors affecting the price of gold, crude oil prices, the U.S. CPI and the gold price is a positive relationship between the U.S. dollar, U.S. interest rates, the sudden event and the price of gold as a negative relationship. And unexpected events (generally refers to the major developed countries in the political situation, geopolitical struggle, the financial crisis in the event of a sudden catastrophe) in a short period of strong impact on the international price of gold, with unpredictable. In order to be more convincing, this paper selects the gold price, oil price, the federal funds rate and the U. S. consumer price index of four variables, using EVIEWS software to carry out empirical test, establish a regression model, determine the role of the various variables on the gold price and the direction of the largest, followed by the oil price, and finally the federal funds rate, and the former two are positive, the latter is the conclusion of the reverse.The restricting factors of the price of gold is clear, although our country has established gold spot and futures exchange and seek dominance of gold, the implementation of internationalization of the RMB, but at this stage from there is a big gap between the dominance of the New York Mercantile Exchange, so the current China and China Neihuang gold enterprises only have passive acceptance of fate. Therefore, this paper also analyzes the impact of gold price fluctuations on the domestic gold mining, and the gold price is in the rising channel, the impact of the domestic large gold group. At the same time, this paper forecasts the trend of the future price of gold. Through the analysis of the 2013 international political and economic situation, in 2014 the United States quantitative easing monetary policy gradually withdraw, the U.S. economic indicators improved, the European debt crisis outlook is uncertain, the Middle East, North Africa and other major oil producing countries, the possibility of large-scale conflict, unless the oil price soared, the U.S. stock market crash, the outbreak of large-scale inflation and other factors, in 2014 and the next period of time gold prices will remain at 1150-1500 U.S. dollars/ounce fluctuations. On this basis, the paper puts forward some opinions on how to deal with the fluctuation of the gold price in the large gold group in China. This paper argues that our country in dollars as foreign exchange reserves of the main national assets, due to depreciation of the dollar assets massive shrink, embody the function of preserving and increasing the value of gold, the national strategy of increase China’s gold reserves, to promote the internationalization of the RMB. For gold companies, to advance the layout, the use of a reasonable use of futures markets to avoid risk, and actively carry out gold lease and other business, the greatest degree of reduction of gold prices caused by the loss of business.The anther works in a large gold mining group in Shandong Province, who is familiar with the production and operation of the enterprise, the auther hopes that by doing this work to provide the basis for the same kind of business to avoid risks. |
