| The urbanization of Chinese city has entered a fast growing stage, urban growth has animportant role in the national economy development, at the same time, under the backgroundof China’s economic transformation, the sharpening contradictions between the dual structurein urban, and other domestic and foreign situation changes, extensive development model ofurbanization has been unable to continue.In order to Judge the trend of urbanizationcharacteristics, major opportunities,grasp the implication of urbanization,and deal with thechallenge, it is urgent need for us to focus on effectiveness of city size,analyze therelationship between agglomeration benefit and city size.we also need to estimate the optimalcity size under the economic and social environment in Guangdong Province,and analyzespatial agglomeration factors and dis-economies factors,which determine the optimal city sizein Guangdong Province.Based on the perspective of spatial agglomeration of urban economic growth,thisdissertation uses the nonlinear estimation,2SLS, the system GMM and Liml, with thecombining of theory and practice,to analysis the overall development situation of city size inGuangdong Province.This dissertation also discuss the relationship between city size and cityeconomic benefit, establishes econometric model to estimate the optimum size of the city inGuangdong Province, and put forward the hypothesis test to verify the explanatory variablesof urban growth.The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the urbanization of Guangdong provincehas realized excellent development,the size distribution of city shows from scattered state tothe ideal state, the population agglomeration of big cities is more prominent. Secondly,.thecity size and urban agglomeration benefits appear inverted U-shaped relationship,employmentdensity, the improvement of urban infrastructure, fixed capital, human capital investment andthe improvement of foreign capital are agglomeration force; which determinate the citysize,and transportation costs within the city is dispersion force, which generate externalcost. Finally, this dissertation analyze optimal city size in Guangdong province from aspectsof urban employment size and population size.Under the control of the city type,the estimatorof optimal employment size is higher than most of the actual employment size in Guangdongprovince. The result of Dynamic panel data test on the optimal population size of Guangdongprovince is between 3.2 million to 3.7 million. Large cities have greatly exert theagglomeration economic benefits, and confront them with negative externality problems ofurban expansion. In contrast,small cities are defined by population capacity limits,and did notplay agglomeration economy benefit. |
