A Study On The U.S. Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy Risk’s Spillover Effects To China

The subprime crisis which started from America and resulted in the world economic recession,and the outbreak of European debt crisis,troubled many countries.Coutries such as America and European Union luanched unconventional,quantative easing monetary policy,tring to ameliorated the balance sheets of their goverment,finacial institutions and family,whose spillover effect inevitably influenced on the economy of China.Based on the papers about the spillover mechanism and the spillover channels of monetary policy,and the definition,the theoretical basis,the effects and the results of American quantative easing monetary policy,this article comprehensively study the spillover mechanism and the spillover effects of American quantitative easing monetary policy to China,through qualitative and quantitaitve analysis.In this paper, by using the Mundell-Fleming-Dombush(MFD) model and the new open economy macroeconomics(NOEM) model, we draw a conclusion that the quantitative easing monetary policy from America has the positive and negative spillover effect on China.At the same time,this article analyze the spillover channels to China in detail:the International capital flow channel,the trade and output channel,the goverment adaptive learning channels and the Iternational commodity channel.In empirical research,this paper adopts the structural vector auto regression model(SVAR)to analyze the exitence and the extent of the spillover effect of American quantitative easing monetary policy to China,which the data sample is divided into quatitative easing period and non quantitative easing period,and the moetary policy has price type and quantitative type.According to these analyses,China should publish multiple policise to accelerate capital market’s standardization process,improve the current settlement system,strengthen the independence of the central bank,improve the export environment,and establish resource commodities reserve mechanism,in order to deal with the impact of other contries’ monetary policy spillover effect in future.