A Study On The Bubble Measure And Countermeasure Of The Real Estate Of Shijiazhuang

The real estate industry is not only the strong driving force of the economic, but also the great influence of the other correlative industry. And because of the dominant and fundamental role it has played in the rapid development of our national economy, the real estate industry is called the " bellwether " and "barometer" of the national economy. In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the rapid advance of urbanization, residents’ living standard unceasing enhancement, and the policies of the government to start domestic demand, the development of the real estate industry has entered a rapid growth phase.Since 2008, that our country has affected by the international financial crisis and the overall external demand reduced greatly, leds to the country’s real economy development suffered the huge impact. By the influence of macroeconomic policy that stimulating domestic demand of the country to stimulate economic growth, the real estate industry takes the lead in the recovery, thus it promoted the recovery and development of relevant industries, and it played an important role in the guide for the development of the whole national economy. Since the NPC and CPPCC(National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) this year, prime minister Li Keqiang has repeatedly stressed the importance and necessity of the construction of urbanization, and a new round of upsurge of urbanization will further promote the development of the real estate industry. But at the same time of the explosive growth of the real estate industry, the rising of housing prices has gone far beyond the purchasing power of residents, and the superposition of the housing bubble will also be detrimental to the healthy development of macro economy.In this paper, according to the characteristics of the real estate market of Shi Jiazhuang city as well as the availability of the index data, we select production, trading, consumption and finance these four types of indicators to measure the degree of the housing bubble.Through the software of SPSS,after we carry out the degree of correlation test on each index variable which we selected, exclude the index variable which is out of condition,analyze the remaining index factor, and analyze the results, we will determine whether the further factor rotation should to be done or not. Then the real estate bubble measure modelis established according to the result of factor analysis to calculate the bubbles index of each year of Shi Jiazhuang. After that we will map of Shi Jiazhuang real estate bubble index trend. According to what we have done we can analyze the situation of the real estate bubble in Shi Jiazhuang in the last ten years scientifically and reasonably, and in the light of the formation reasons of the real estate bubble,we will put forward the corresponding control countermeasures. So we can provide data support for Shi Jiazhuang city government to make relevant policies, do local regulation and control, then the smooth and orderly operation of Shi Jiazhuang real estate market is ensured, and the Shi Jiazhuang city occurs no warning of the real estate bubble bursting, causing a series of economic problems can be prevented.