| Urban comprehensive carrying capacity(UCCC) is closely related to sustainable development and scientific development of the city, which involves the resources, the ecology, the environment, the public service and other aspects of the city. Now, our country is in the stage of rapid urbanization. The development and expansion of the city are attracting more and more attentions with the economic development and the new urbanization in China. Adopting the spatial data including natural geography, social economy, land use and the planning of Xuzhou, using spatial data analysis method based on the GIS platform, the study has been carried out mainly in two aspects in this paper.(1) Evaluation research on urban comprehensive carrying capacity in Xuzhou. Considering the connotation and integrated features of UCCC, evaluation indicator system of UCCC in Xuzhou have selected 26 indicators from three aspects of support, press and adjustment, and the system includes the contents of natural resources, ecological environment, social economy and public services.The evaluation and calculation of spatial information data mainly use buffer analysis, network analysis, kernel density analysis and other methods in the Arc GIS. The weights of the indicators are established through the AHP. UCCC of Xuzhou urban area is calculated according to the evaluation unit of 1km′1km grid, and five grades are divided according to the results of UCCC calculated. Finally, the space distribution is analyzed based on the results. The results show that UCCC of Xuzhou urban area has the characteristics of widespread gathering, small region dispersion and low-high zones gradient distribution. Overall, the western region of UCCC is higher than that of eastern region, the southwest is higher than that of northeast, and the northwest is higher than that of southeast. Affected by the policy and superior adjustment, the UCCC of Tongshan downtown and Main City is higher than other regions. Middle-zone mainly locates in middle-east, south and northwest that account for a large area, and that zone has great development potential in the future. Low-zone mainly locates on the both sides of the Abandoned Yellow River, the northern part of the Immortality River and the area around Weishan Lake that are mainly limited by ecological environment and geological conditions. Evaluation results are basically consistent with the direction of urban master plan, with inconformity in partial areas.(2) Prediction and expansion study on construction land in Xuzhou urban area. For further analysis of UCCC about the expansion in Xuzhou urban area, the development of the construction land since the reform and opening up is analyzed by the speed and the relative change model of the construction expanded. The expansion area of construction land is still in a rapid growth in the main direction of Northeast-East, East-Southeast and Southeast-South after 1994. At the same time, with the Arc GIS and IDRISI software, three limiting factors including construction land, traffic land and water and six suitability factors including distance to centre, distance to roads and others are selected according to the theory of CA_Markov model. Utilizing MCE decision module the suitable image of construction land are formulated, the general trend of construction land expansion in a short time is predicted. By extracting the prediction results, the construction land expansion mainly concentrates on the center and both sides of main road, especially in the east, south and northeast directions. Overlaying the trend of construction land expansion and evaluation results of UCCC, results are founded that predicted construction land distribution in High-zone, secondary High-zone and Middle-zone account for 85%, only sporadic areas fall in Low-zone, so the evaluation results of UCCC have the reference value. |
PDF Full Text Request